I'm going to have to disagree with the assessment of Ichiro on defense.
Yes, it IS possible for a guy to miss an extra 80 balls in a season and fans remain completely unaware.
Here are the innings and total chances for Ichiro in 2010 and 2011:
1412 - 365
1333 - 274
Ichiro himself reached 91 fewer balls in 2011 than 2010. Did anyone not looking at the actual raw numbers notice this? Well, in April, when Ichiro was making ESPN low-light plays each week, it was noticeable. But as humans, we simply don't remember plays unless they look visually stunning, (good or bad), (which Ichiro's never have), or they happen to occur at a critical point in the game, (which Ichiro's April errors happened to do).
People accepted that Junior was fantastic, because he looked fantastic. People have accepted Ichiro as fantastic because the numbers have said he was fantastic. But, you cannot completely dismiss the numbers the instant they don't say what you want.
Even taking 2011 as an outlier, the previous maximum down-skew from average was only -7 -- (+11 to +4). This was a skew of -18. It was an outlier more than double his worse previous performance ever. If he were only 32, perhaps you write it off as just a career bad year. But at age 37, you simply have to factor in age. The fact his fielding *AND* hitting both tanked so badly in 2011 suggests 'cause' more than 'fluke'.
But, even accepting that 2011 was just a random down year ... in 2012, he is moving to #3 in the order. That's a huge change. Am I supposed to believe that moving to third in the order and being asked to become an RBI man is going to shore up his defense in some way? Because my thought is that he is going to be LESS concerned about defense in 2012.
Ultimately, here is what I believe. Ichiro is older. His body is simply not repairing itself as quickly as it used to. So, a steadily increasing number of games each year (from here on out), his body will enter the game with aches and pains that he simply did not have 3 or 5 years ago. For his bat, that means he'll be just the tiniest bit slow through the zone. For his glove, that means he'll be just a little bit slower to the ball.
But, the real key here is that wear and tear accumulates. At age 34, Ichiro's body could repair daily damage from exertion. It is unlikely that it still does. You give him 30 games off and do away with day games after night games and allow his aging body enough time to recover from pro-level effort ... and he might very well be able to run a +7 "rate". But, I don't believe for one second that Ichiro is going to be on the bench for 30 games.
Assuming that "some" of 2011 was fluke ... I would still say that expecting Ichiro to be more than dead average is extremely optimistic. He is older. He showed decline in nearly every skill set, (SBs is about the only area the numbers don't support skill decline).
But, my final point is this. Ichiro has never been a "dive for the ball" defender. He relied on his speed and attention to allow him to get to so many balls that diving wasn't necessary. IMO, this goes directly to the "embarassment" mentality. He doesn't want to "look" bad in the field. If that is indeed the case, then I would posit that the most obvious reaction to a minor decline in ability is a decline in urgency to get to the ball.
I think what happened is this. In April, he was trying to get to stuff, failing, and showing up as a bad defender on ESPN. So, as the year progressed, he recognized earlier that he wasn't going to be able to reach balls, and positioned for the rebound or cut-off. Visually, he looks competent, but his actual outs remain well below average all season. He was not getting to the same balls from May to October -- he was just doing so "prettier".
Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe 2011 was a fluke. Maybe Ichiro has a solid bounce back. But the one thing I am certain of is that Ichiro is not Benjamin Button. He isn't aging backwards. He is, in fact, a year older this year than last. And even if zero percent of last season's decline was age based - it is still an ever-growing probability that this year's performance will be.
This is not the same case as Griffey, where I am certain he's done. Ichiro is in great shape. He's an enigma making him hard to project and always has been. But, I think what gets to me most about discussions of aging is that Ichiro at age 38 is given a pass on age -- while Figgins at age 34 is viewed by most as beyond hope because he's too old to return to previous level.
If I'm projecting Ichiro defensively for 2012 - I peg him for dead average. I think that factors in regression to the mean plus his continued aging. The big variable for 2012 I see is whether his move in the lineup becomes a detriment to his defense. In the end, I think the move to 3rd in the lineup will ultimately get all the attention. If my guess there is correct, (that the increased desire for RBI and power will negatively impact his BABIP), then the OPS+ dropping to 90 or below as the year unfolds will render the defensive questions moot.
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