TFB is basing their projections on running three-year +/- averages. That'll do for most players but I think trends need to be factored in as well, and their metrics can't make projections for new players like Jesus Montero (below average), Kyle Seager (average to maybe a hair above), Dustin Ackley (average to a little below), and Michael Saunders (well above average). They also incorrectly forecasted a full healthy season fort F-Gutz...I think he gets 80 games tops this year because Saunders outhits him two to one.
My rough projections:
C) Miguel Olivo/Jesus Montero -3 (Olivo is TERRIBLE at the normal defensive stuff catchers do other than baserunners, where he is a little above average long term and getting old)
1B) Smoak/random -4
2B) Dustin Ackley -2
3B) Kyle Seager 0
SS) Brendan Ryan/Munenori Kawasaki +8 (sorry...not buying +16 for a mostly hurting Ryan even though he was good the last three years...Kawasaki is a plus defender as well, so he'll work when Ryan is out)
LF) Mike Carp / Casper Wells / Michael Saunders 0 (Saunders saves this group from a big fat -5...Wells is OK in left, but Carp is pretty short on range)
CF) Franklin Gutierrez / Michael Saunders +15
RF) Ichiro Suzuki +7
NET) +21
Above average on defense, mostly in the outfield. BABIP will be solid (BABIP is more about outfielders than infielders, as James noted), but groundball pitchers won't get much help unless they are left handed.
But not an elite team as TFB shows.
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