Felix' Career Transition 3 - His Health Is Fine
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Okay, so now we've gotten a visceral feel for the fact that it is normal, almost inescapable, for a great young pitcher to lose the great fastball.
Matt Cain is throwing free and easy, and the Giants obviously just CT-scanned his shoulder tissues six ways from Sunday. Have you seen a cat scan in the year 2012? Dr. G will (we think!) confirm. My mom just had this done, and they let me watch the bank of monitors. They can isolate vessels, small muscle fibers, ligaments, render anything they want in 3D and they can see EXACTLY what's going on in there -- better than if they sliced it apart.
Yeah, Cain's feeling great, but he's also thrown 1,300 innings in the bigs, and his muscles just aren't as fresh as they used to be.
Same with Lincecum. He's got the same pop in his step that he ever did, the same sparkly to his movements, but the arm muscles just ain't quite what they were when he was 21. They never will be again. The Giants gave him the NASA physical before they gave him $40M for two years. It showed that the new 91 MPH velocity was not a result of physical damage whatsoever.
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Add to that, this. Felix' demeanor is completely different from what Michael Pineda's was, before he revealed his shoulder was hurting. Felix is completely happy-go-lucky. He got hit in that pre-Japan game and he was laughing... "I dunno, man. I really don't. Whatever."
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Add to that, this. You watched Felix on the mound in Japan, and his motion, his weight, his fingersnap, everything ... not a trace of exertion or labor whatsoever.
Did you see the game? Was Felix shrugging his shoulders as if uncomfortable? Was his tempo different, any slower at all? Did he look like he was enjoying the game less?
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Add to that, this. Was Felix getting hit in Japan, or in his last outing? Were his offspeed pitches getting hit?
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Nobody has a crystal ball, or guarantees. The title of this article is a little tongue-in-cheek. But we've given you our reasons for believing that Felix is simply undergoing a normal career evolution, as opposed to experiencing a major injury. Velo dropoffs are typical in baseball, and Felix LOOKS perfectly fine out there, and he seems genuinely sincere when he SAYS he's perfectly fine.
Career transition, less velocity. That's the appropriate premise going forward, the premise that is based on data.
My $0.02,
Dr D