Figgins and Ichiro are Swingin' It, Bab-eh
...............
Q. Question was whether a #3 Ichiro would tighten his strike zone and be more effective. How's that workin' out for yer?
A. "It's not enough to be a great player. You must also play great." - Bobby Fischer
When it's garbage time, Ichiro plays like it's garbage time. Last half hour in the gym, three hours in, dudes are just hanging at half court picking cherries.
When Ichiro is playing in meaningless baseball games, -25 games out of first, with guys hitting .179 ahead of him in the lineup, Ichiro goes up and flails away for hits. This approach produces worse stats overall, and he probably knows this, but "200 hits" has been the little roach pet that he twigs around in the dungeon cell.
In 2010, he had a lot of fun with this little insect companion, logging 214 hits as the Mariners scored their 513 deadball-era runs. In 2011, the little roach pet died on him. Fortunately for him, the Americans entered Berlin and threw the dungeon door open.
.
Q. Four games in, batting #3 in a dynamic* lineup behind Dustin Ackley, is his strike zone better?
A. Four games in, his strike zone is the best of his career. That's my eye, but you don't care about that, so let's run the numbers you do care about.
| OOZ Sw % | OOZ Ct % | Sw% | Ct% | 1st Str% | SwStr% | |
| 2006 | 25 | |||||
| 2007 | 27 | |||||
| 2008 | 29 | |||||
| 2009 | 32 | 49 | 89 | 52 | 5 | |
| 2010 | 35 | 50 | 89 | 59 | 5 | |
| 2011 | 36 | 49 | 90 | 58 | 5 | |
| 2012 | 20 | 100% | 40 | 96 | 68 | 1 |
| ML AVG | 28 | 64 | 45 | 79 | 60 | 9 |
The full table is here at Fangraphs.
.
Q. I'm nowhere near the dweeb you are. What does any of that even mean?
A. Scan down the first column, on the left. Since 2006, Ichiro has been fishing for more, and more, and more, pitches outside the strike zone. BOOM! :: John Madden :: Ichiro now swings at NOTHING outside the zone.
And check the 100% in the 2012 line. When Ichiro does go outside the zone a bit, it's because he's going to hit the ball.
..........
See the 68% for 2012 strike percentage? That means that pitchers are coming after Ichiro. They've got to, correct? He's no longer stepping into the box with two out and nobody on.
But see the 40% for 2012 swing percentage? Ichiro is seeing far, far better pitches, and yet is pulling the trigger vastly less often.
See the 1% swinging strike percentage this year? When Selective Ichiro pulls the trigger in 2012 and lets the bat fly, the pitcher had better have his glove in combat position.
.
Q. In layman's terms, he's doing what?
A. He's going out there and putting a pro at-bat on.
Rather than standing in there and whaling at whatever comes in - see ball, hit ball, and may the base on balls be forever cursed to oblivion - Ichiro is stalking pitches.
Four inches off the plate, he takes a Bruce Lee half-position arm block, then stops the bat, lays it down, and walks to first base. Four inches onto the plate, Ichiro bisects the mosquito with that katana blade and smokes a hot shot one-hopper through the infield.
.
Q. It's four games.
A. Thing is, it was a shot called before the pitch. ;- ) If you're looking to do a little catchup DVR viewing, you've got this article and this article.
The prediction occurred before 0 games. Let's re-predict it, after 4 games. Starting to get stoked?
...........
It's four games, yes. We don't say that Ichiro's .350 is in the bank. We say that so far in 2012, he's tightened his swing and the results are as advertised.
Whattaya know, he's hitting .353 with a .478 SLG and a high ISO. His groundball ratios are perfect for him, 2.2. He is getting on top of the ball and lining it hard all over the park. He's Ichiro 2004.
Ichiro's done it for four games. Batting #3, behind Dustin Ackley, with the M's winning, it says here that Ichiro will continue to swing as though the games matter.
.........
Stat of the day: Ichiro 2011 WAR = 0.2. Ichiro 2012 WAR = 0.2.
.
Q. The title mentioned Chone Figgins. You're light.
A. All of Figgins' plate discipline stats are analogous.
Dig this chart. Figgins' Outside Zone Swing % last year was 25%. Guess what it is now? 9%. He is, ahem, selecting pitches that he can handle. And THEN when he does swing, he accelerates the 1-wood through the tee and hits himself in the back with the followthrough.
Stat of the day: Figgins 2011 WAR = -1.3 WAR. Figgins 2012 WAR = 0.3.
Figgy + Ichiro WAR last year = -1.1. Their combined WAR so far in four games: +0.5.
............
We ran the stats for LrKrBoi29, but the centerfield camera should have been all you needed. Their .350 batting averages aren't random stats, much less being "small sample sizes" (sic!). Their production is a result of their swinging good.
It's not enough to be a great player; you must also play great. These two have.
.
Q. Leaving Eric Wedge ... where?
A. I don't say that Figgins and Ichiro have banked 100 runs each. What we do know is that Figgins got his pprrrrrecious leadoff spot and now he is trying his level best to bring his A game.
SSI predicted that the #3 spot would affect Ichiro's strike zone and game. First four games, this "hit during rallies" tonic seems to have settled Ichiro's sour stomach.
If this holds up -- even partially -- we are all going to have to re-think ML managers' preoccupation with batting orders. Sabermetrics has no idea what causes a player to have an UP or DWN year. Maybe batting order is a frequent factor.
Cheers,
Dr D