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Other than being 7 years older, what's the difference in these stat lines?
2004: 63.8% GB rate, 18.4% LD rate, 17.9 % FB rate
2011: 59.9% GB rate, 19.1% LD rate, 21.1% FB rate
Ichiro had 262 hits in 2004 with that set of "decline" stats, and then half-a-dozen more productive years. In 2011 he cratered, hard.
It was a BABIP issue. He posted a .399 in 2004, and a .295 in 2011. And you're using BABIP as your sole defining characteristic of impending doom for aging hitters. Ichiro's BABIP dropped, therefore he must be done.
Your whole theory that he is likely to crash and burn again, harder, and end his career seems based on comparisons to aging hitters who...hit nothing like Ichiro. Why not use Kenny Lofton, Pete Rose? Those guys are more like Ichiro than Sexson and Griffey for sure.
Kenny Lofton had his BABIP gutter out in 2000, at age 33. He went from a BABIP monster to having 5 straight years where it only once climbed above .300 (.306). His OPS+ marks those years? 100, 89, 102, 106, 95. Then it came back (.373, .324, .316 his last 3 years). So even when his OPS+ cratered it didn't kill his productivity, and it didn't STAY gone as you would expect from an age-related BABIP decline.
Pete Rose lost his BABIP edge in '82, age 41, put up three seasons between 90 and 100 OPS+ along with a stinker, and then left the game. He still had 3 years past where Ichiro is now, though as was somehow talented enough to still be an average hitter at age 44.
"Ichiro can't keep his value with a cratered BABIP, because he doesn't walk. Lofton and Rose took walks."
Okay. Personally that wouldn't be my takeaway. My takeaway would be "BABIP age-related declines might be more detrimental to HR hitters who are inflating their BIP numbers by clearing the fences. Losing 4 bases to a fly ball that should have been a HR hurts more than losing a single."
I would also wonder if the early LD% numbers from Ichiro are indicative of his method of combatting slowing legs and BABIP decline - squaring up more balls.
I've said before that if I was Ichiro I would investigate swinging a bat that wasn't as skinny to keep my BABIP high. Showing off pin-point accuracy is no longer necessary - serving singles to left is, and that's easier with a bigger barrel and sweet spot on the bat than what Ichiro's provides.
It looks to me like he's being more selective, not swinging out of the zone, and trying to square up more balls. That's another possible solution to "weak grounders to short due to an artificially large, player-created strike zone."
I would give him a wider bat and 25 games a year off, and see what he could do. His own choice is to keep his swing% on stuff outside the zone at a ridiculously low level.
I guess I wonder what you believe his productivity should be this year. I'm hoping for a 105 OPS+. You seem to believe this .690 OPS is the absolute best we can hope for from Ichiro because his LD% is so high and this is all he's getting out of it. If he OPS's .800 in May like he usually does, what would be your reason for that? Luck?
I mean, if this is as good as Ichiro can possibly do, and his BABIP will never recover any fraction of his high-water marks, then how in the world could he do that?
It seems your answer is, "he can't do that without the BABIP being lucky."
Guess I'll hope for the sort of luck Ichiro has always managed to find, then.
~G