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His .295 BABIP in 2011 was not about luck, but ability. We agree.
His .295 BABIP so far is unlucky, based on his 27% LD Rate. I can accept this as a reasonable premise. I understand the rationale. But, while I can accept this "might" be the case, I completely disagree that this "must" be the case. Why? Because when Sexson and Griffey "lost it", their BABIP levels "decoupled" with their previously established levels ... and the same decoupling of BABIP with previously established levels is very common among aging players.
But, even with that, I can agree if his current LD% had a normal BABIP rate, his current BABIP would be .333.
But, my larger point is this. The chance of him maintaining a 27% LD rate is effectively zero. The chance of him maintaining a 4.2% strikeout rate is effectively zero. The chance of him maintaining his BIP rate of 92% is effectively zero. Based on these numbers AND Doc's eyes-on evaluation, I accept that Ichiro has been "in the zone" thus far.
My position is this: WHEN ... (not "if"), his LD% drops ... WHEN his K-rate rises ... WHEN his BIP rate drops ... his BABIP is going to be "no better" than .295 ... and is, in fact, likely to be worse.
If you are correct - that his "real" current BABIP is .333 ... and he's just been unlucky, then when he cools off, he drops to .295-ish ... and we get a repeat of 2011.
If I am correct - that his "real" current BABIP is in fact .295 ... and his skills have eroded, like Griffey and Sexson and countless other aging players before him ... then when his currently stellar peripherals drop his BABIP is going to tank horribly and instead of a repeat of Ichiro '11 ... we're going to get a repeat of Ronny Cedeno '09.
Neither of these results is good for the team.
What I don't see is ... what is the upside? Is it Ichiro maintaining a 27% LD rate, a 92% BIP rate and a 4.2% K-rate for 161 games ... and when the BABIP climbs to where it should be, then the production arrives?