Coming into the season, I was expecting a .350 April followed by a rapid decline. I would've been prepared for a transition where Ichiro was trying something radical, (like the Ackley swing), and might be struggling, in which case there could be an eventual leap in production. For me, the current situation is the worst of both worlds. He has "successfully" transitioned, and is actually currently "hot". Yet, his production remains tepid at best. That's a horrible combo for projecting production forward.
1) Why would you expect a .350 April when Ichiro has only ever done that once? April is his worst career month.
April OPS worse than his current one:
2003: .623
2004: .613
2008: .671
Number of Aprils with an OPS over .800: three
You're asking him to do something out of the norm (ie, hit for more than a .750 OPS in April - his average for the month is .747 - or exceed a .350 BA) and calling that normal. How is that an accurate assessment of his skillset, current or otherwise?
2) He IS going through a transition. Moving from slapping a force-out to the hole at short and beating it out because no one is on base, to swinging with runners on base and not having that option available...that actually is a transition worth noting. I'm very curious to see his hit chart in September and see how it's altered his approach, but I would have to think it's altered it some. Having your "runners on" numbers go from about a third to almost a half - before the offense even gets going - isn't a nothing change.
But if we were making the "Ichiro's dead" call based on his April OPS he'd have been dead 3 or 4 times already.
I think you're calling it too early, Sandy. Doc is probably frustrated because he had this argument on the internet in 2003, and 2004, and 2008, and any other time Ichiro starts off slowly. "Age has caught him. Dead Ichiro."
Based on last year's results, Ichiro might well be dying. So yes, then Doc goes back to, "if Ichiro was NOT a corpse, how would you know?" Two ugly Chone-Figgins-like, overwhelmed at-bats that somehow produced hits would solve the OPS explanation that you're married to but would actually be a thumbs down as far as Ichiro's life-status goes.
I don't want to re-up with Ichiro after this year. It would be easier for me to believe that Ichiro is done being productive in any way so that the Ms are not even tempted to pay a singles-hitting RF about to turn 40 some crazy $15 mil / yr salary.
I've seen all the games, and he doesn't look done, man. Projecting this as a top end after 11 games because YOU believe he should have started off with a better statline and not doing so failed the expectations you held for what a successful Ichiro start would look like...
That's not on Ichiro. You still might be right - but you're using a sample against largely TOR starting pitching and excellent bullpens that includes a crazy travel schedule, Ichiro's worst month, a lineup position and expectation change...
And then assuming that doubters of your hypothesis are just making excuses. It's a weird pitch for reason.
~G