I can accept Doc is 100% dead-on with his analysis ... but the end result is what so far? A .690 OPS from a #3 hitter.
Ichiro is hitting the ball hard, and has missed at least 1 hit so far from a "luck" perspective, probably more like 2.
Let's be generous and say it was 3.
3 more Ichiro singles = .356/.383/.444/.827 and we're extolling Ichiro-san's greatness.
2 more singles = .333/.362/.422/.784 and we're feeling pretty good.
1 more single = .311/.340/400/.740 and we're thinking a 105ish OPS+ from Ichiro for the year is survivable if the kids come through.
I can't draw any of your sweeping conclusions from the early data, Sandy. It's just too early. I'm satisfied with Ichiro's approach thus far - it looks good to me, better than last year. Maybe that's hope and inference instead of hard, scientific assessment, but I don't think there's enough data to assess at this point.
One of Ichiro's liners bounces off a glove and one fielder can't get to a sinking liner and this convo doesn't happen. I don't see that as a good way to assess someone.
If the BABIP numbers stay down, like you infer from the limited data, then yes Ichiro will be in trouble.
If he goes 4-for-5 tomorrow (all singles) then your one-day-old analysis will look really skewed, because he'll be hitting .340/.365/.420/.785 and his BABIP will have climbed. If he goes 0-for-5, he'll be hitting .260/.288/.340/.628. Any time somebody can alter their OPS by 150 points in one game (more if he hits a double or two) then I have trouble basing my opinion on those numbers.
Combine that with April being his weakest career month and I'm gonna have to wait a little longer to jump on your bandwagon, m'man.
Gotta play it out a little longer first.
~G