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Could the 27% LD rate and .295 BABIP be a case of bad luck? Yes. But that doesn't make the future look any rosier.
His 27% LD rate is almost certain to fall. Based on his entire career, (plus his age), it's going to drop. So, even if he is currently "unlucky", when his LD% drops, his BABIP isn't likely to go up. I'm not saying when his LD% drops his BABIP will drop to .235. But, there's zero reason to think if he returns to his 2011 LD% that his BABIP will be any higher than his 2011 .295.
When Sexson lost his BABIP, I was in the "he will rebound" camp. He didn't. It was at that point that I started looking at age-related decline and saw a clear pattern that shows when BABIP crashes for "aging" players, they don't tend to recover. And if they do, it is typically only for one last decent year.
I *predicted* the final Griffey debacle while everyone else was convinced he was showing up in better shape and had another good year in him. The reason is simple. Where the masses have come to accept BABIP as a 98% "luck" number, I realized that there is some portion of BABIP that is NOT luck. The difficulty is in attempting to separate one from the other.
You show me a 28 year old with a 40 point dip in BABIP I will accept that the dip is bad luck. You show me a 38 year old with a 50 point dip in BABIP the odds are strong that "the majority" of that decline is not luck-based.
Is it possible for an aging player to be unlucky for a season? Certainly. But, here's the rub. Every additional year is one where the odds of falling off the cliff increase. It is completely plausible that an age 37 player could be fine physically, have an unlucky year (and poor BABIP), and then fall off the cliff the next season. But, hindsight, what that is going to look like is that his ability was gone in that first season of decline. And for all intents and purposes, it makes no difference to total production.
When I look at Ichiro's Batted Ball chart on Fangraphs, what I see is a LD% that dropped every year from 2005-2010. But, I also see his IFH% climb dramatically for the '09 and '10 seasons. Ichiro's decline began 6 years ago. But ... like HoFers do, he adjusted. He ticked up his infield hit game and in doing so, kept his BABIP elevated. In short, he played to his strength.
Last year, his IFH% crashed ... and with it, so did his BABIP and pretty much all his stats. His LD% was nominally up, (but still below career average). Note: His LD% went up 1.8 points, but his BABIP crashed by 58 points. That's not just simply bad luck. You look at his early career - best ISO season ever (.133 in 2005) was his worst BABIP season ever - .316).
Despite all the talk about his BP exploits, Ichiro simply does not have the kind of bat speed where line drives are going to help his BABIP. Chone Figgins has a .215 BABIP last year. Is that simply bad luck? Michael Saunders had a .212. Was that just bad luck?
As an analyst, I'm attempting to discern when BABIP skew is NOT luck. IMO, the whole of Ichiro's stat line ... examining the trends for the last several years ... support the notion that he has a slider speed bat that is becoming increasingly easy to exploit.
Could I be wrong? Certainly. I hope that the ace-heavy opposition pitcher parade settles down and the entire offense wakes up. I suspect for a number of hitters that will be the case. But players do not age backward, (now that steroids are actually banned).
Yes, this early, the small denominator could make the current snapshot illusory. But, after an entire season of .295 BABIP ... another 11 games of exactly .295 BABIP certainly isn't suggestive that 2011 was just an off year ... so far. A career of LD% near 20 suggests the 27% is illusory. But the entire 2011 season suggests the .295 BABIP is real.
In truth, I would've expected a minor bounce for Ichiro in 2012 ... were it not for the move to 3rd, (detrimental to his remaining skillset), as well as a manager who thus far has shown no sense of how to implement "rest" days in a fashion to maximize production across the roster.
I can accept Doc is 100% dead-on with his analysis ... but the end result is what so far? A .690 OPS from a #3 hitter. He's adopted a completely different approach that thus far seems pointed at producing results right on par with 2011.