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While the Ms results have been encouraging on many levels, it's early ... and attempting to read too much into data too soon is dangerous. Of course, scouting isn't about numbers ... it's eyes-on. But, here are some numbers to consider:
RF: .289/.313/.378 (.690) - 1-HR -- Ichiro
RF: .211/.250/.342 (.592) - 1-HR -- Cruz
RF: .250/.314/.313 (.627) - 0-HR -- Hunter
Ichiro is hitting as well as the Western RFs. That's good. But, what is not good is that according to Doc, Ichiro has altered his approach AND is somewhat dialed in. Doc has described Ichiro with almost across the board positives. IMO, this is very, very, very bad. Why? Because if Doc is correct, then Ichiro's results have no reason to improve.
The numbers?
pitches/PA = 3.48 ... lowest since rookie season. In '09 and '10 it had gone up to .374 and 3.73. In 2011, it dropped to 3.51, (his career is 3.60).
Both his BB% and K% are at 4.2%. These are both way down from career norms of 6.1% and 9.3%.
His BABIP is .295 ... identical to his 2011 BABIP. This is especially disturbing, given that his LD% is currently 27.3% ... a full 7 points above his career average.
I don't have eyes-on data. I can only look at the numbers. But, if I accept Doc's view of Ichiro as 100% on the money, what is my take-away?
1) Opposition is coming right at him. After last year ... and with Ichiro in an RBI slot, they are not even contemplating pitching around him. He is viewed "today" as a weaker bat than the kids behind him. This is supported by the highest FB% he's seen since 2003 ... and a spike in the cutter % and corresponding drop in slider. IMO, the book on Ichiro at this moment is that he may only have a slider speed bat at this point, so they aren't going to help him out by throwing sliders. Just fyi ... his wFB last year was -13.6.
2) Ichiro may indeed be more selective than ever ... his swing% is the lowest of his career. But the enemy is pounding the zone with fastballs, and the result is Ichiro is running a .295 BABIP. Not good. Moreover, he's not doing more with these pitches. His ISO is .089 ... (better than the off-the-charts-bad .064 from 2011 ... but still below his career average of .096).
3) His speed still seems okay. And the sample size is too small to draw any firm conclusions. But he's still at 11.1% for infield hits, up a point from last year. His 60% extra-base-taken number is off the charts good, compared to his 41% career average. But, he has only a single stolen bases out of 11 opportunities.
BEFORE the season began, my prediction on Ichiro was that the RBI slot would hurt, because he's steal less, (check), he'd be pitched to more aggressively (check), he would attempt to hit for more power (check), but this would keep his BABIP down (check).
But ... the overriding concern here is not about what he has done ... but what he will do for the rest of the season. Okay, maybe Hunter hits the age wall this year. But, the simple truth is this. Few clubs can survive offensively with a RF hitting below .700.
I also predicted Ichiro would get off to a "fast start" ... and would suffer decline as he continued to play every day. Eleven games and eleven starts in RF. With his body as fresh as it will get this year ... with Doc noting a focused player, implementing a solid plan at the plate ... and apparently seeing the ball very well ... with Smoak in the on-deck circle all year ... with all of that ... we get a .690 OPS.
How does he possibly improve on that?
Hit more line drives? Sitting on 27% at the moment, I think it obvious that isn't an option. Walk more? Well, yes, that's possible ... but is dependent on the opponent being concerned enough to actually throw something off the plate. Why should they be? Smoak or Montero or even Seager can hurt them with the bat. Ichiro? If he hits one hard, it's still just a single.
In all honesty ... I was hoping Ichiro would start much faster. Given the numbers so far, I just don't see where the upside is for him to bring the numbers up going forward.