Paxton: You don't hurt Paxton unless he allows it, and inflicts the first half-dozen wounds on himself. I cannot think of a game in which Paxton had his stuff working and he got hit around anyway. It simply doesn't happen.
If he walks 6 dudes you have a 50 / 50 chance of doing decent damage, but he can probably get out of it anyway. His talent level is frightening, even if he's not as polished as you'd want to see him. The Kershaw comps still hold strongly - that was another guy who couldn't be scored on even when he was wild. And he's not wild anymore...
Hultzen: The Doctor looks almost done assimilating to pro ball. Danny was the victim of some wildness early in the year, much as Paxton just was, and has calmed down nicely. One thing hasn't changed - he can't be hit early in the year. When he's throwing strikes he's been nasty, and all his stuff moves. He's still working through his repertoire figuring out how to best deploy it against pro hitters, but he's very close to figuring that out and taking luck out of the equation.
Walker: Walker looks like the best of the three out of the gate. He has Paxton's game with more consistency and his learning arc is like a straight line up at this point. Getting a crick in his neck scared me - our minor league pitchers have stayed scarily healthy and Walker is NOT the guy I want to break that streak. But he's incredibly poised for his age and experience, has consistently better control than Paxton and his stuff is off the charts.
The minors are all about optimism, but these guys are as advertised. They're serious weapons. I still only think one of em makes it up before the trade deadline, and best guess on that is Hultzen, even though I'd have Paxton. Hultzen should - key word should - be less prone to those occasional 8 walk outings.
I think we're gonna be running Felix / Vargas / Beavan / Erasmo / Hultzen in June, with Paxton to AAA and leaving Walker as staff ace at AA. Gotta stagger them out a little.
~G
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