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Well, I feel honored to win the award ... appreciating that the guy giving it to me continues to blindly believe that 100% of every difference between LD% and BABIP is luck.
My foundation point is simple: BABIP to LD% is NOT 100% luck. In point of fact, I posted a long post on just how completely disconnected LD% and BABIP become the instant LD% escapes from a very narrow band of "normal".
My premise is that BABIP is not always luck ... and to date absolutely nobody has presented any evidence or argument to refute that premise.
But fine ... Griffey was just unlucky his final season.
Sexson was just unlucky his final season.
Figgins was just unlucky last season.
But, if you can be incredibly unlucky, can you not be incredibly lucky too?
Last season, there was one guy in the entire AL who managed a LD% above 25%, (Michael Young had a 26.2% LD% for the season, (and a corresponding .367 BABIP). However, only 2 of the top 10 in BABIP actually managed the 100 over that is being discussed as if it is law. Here's the entire top 10 in LD% with their BABIP and point differential. They were all qualifiers.
J. Ellsbury -- 22.9 - .336 -- (107)
M. Young -- 26.2 - .367 -- (105)
V. Martinez - 24.2 - .343 -- (101)
R. Cano -- 22.3 - .316 --- (93)
A. Callaspo - 22.4 - .310 -- (86)
Elvis Andrus - 23.1 - .312 - (81)
Konerko -- 22.4 - .304 --- (80)
Pennington - 24.8 - .314 -- (66)
Markakis -- 23.1 - .300 --- (69)
Coco Crisp - 24.0 - .284 -- (44)
The central mean difference between LD and BABIP of the top 10 in LD% last year was only 83.
You want current context - how about the top 10 LD% in the AL at this moment? Tell me, based on your luck premise ... whose OPS scores will go up the rest of the way?
R. Sweeney - 32.0 - .460 (+140) -- .990
Torii Hunter - 30.6 - .400 (+94) -- .703
Joe Mauer - 29.7 - .349 (+52) -- .812
S. Duncan - 27.3 - .323 (+50) -- .757
ShinSoo Choo - 27.9 - .326 (+47) -- .697
Ichiro S. --- 31.2 - .316 (-4) -- .731
A. De Aza -- 28.6 - .281 (-5) -- .833
C. Santana - 29.3 - .263 (-30) -- .839
Ian Kinsler - 31.9 - .279 (-40) --- 1016
Granderson - 39.6 - .286 (-110) -- .931
First off, there's only 2 guys currently in the top 10 LD% with positive difference above 52.
The four guys with the worst "luck" so far, also just happen to have 4 of the 5 best OPS figures so far.
The problem here Matt is that you assume LD% is 100% skill and BABIP is 100% luck. I recognize that LD% above 30% is "luck" ... in the sense that it is completely unsustainable.
You ask me to project what Granderson or Kinsler is going to do for the rest of the year and I will go examine their career slashlines, age, parks, lineup position, etc. Knowing that Granderson is currently 110 points UNLUCKY in BABIP will have absolutely zero bearing on what I expect him to do the rest of the way. Same with Kinsler.
At this point, I still see a final OPS below .700 for Ichiro. If he'd take some time off, I could see avenues where he might exceed that. But, if he remains a 161 game guy, I think a repeat of 2011 (or worse) is highly likely.
Before the season began I predicted a number of things with Ichiro due to the lineup change:
1) More LD% and a lower BABIP.
2) Fewer SBs
3) Fewer Infield Hits - (the primary drive of the lower BABIP)
4) Fewer walks
5) A fast start
6) Continuing to play every day
7) Fast start (high motivation), and a significant collapse if he doesn't get rest.
I have yet to see or hear anything to suggest that I'm wrong. But hey ... if you want to continue believing that BABIP is luck in all cases that's your choice.