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Just fyi ... the MLB Net game I taped with the Ms I didn't get to watch ... because they decided Oakland Angels was more appropriate for the NC market than Seattle Cleveland. (sigh).
I am thrilled to see Ichiro finally getting production that matches up with what y'all are seeing. I really am. I look at Fangraphs and see the 30.9% LD%. I have never, at any point, questioned that Ichiro is, in fact, at this moment, completely on fire. I AGREE.
My entire position has been (and remains) ... if Ichiro is on fire .. and he's only posting a .750 OPS ... what happens when he is no longer on fire?
Ichiro, at age 27 ... when he was on fire .. (May of 2001) ... had a slash line of .379/.409/.532 (.941). He hit 11 doubles and 4 triples that month, (no HRs ... shrug). He also managed 14 RBI from the leadoff slot. I don't know what his LD% was during that month ... but I would certainly guess it was sky high, (his BABIP was .395, just fyi ... though in August he would destroy that with a .472 BABIP month).
My point is simply this. A hitter on fire ... *ANY* hitter on fire, tends to produce at a rate 100-200 OPS points ABOVE what his average production is.
Ichiro in 2001 had a pair of months near .950 ... and a final OPS of .838.
Ichiro in 2004 (his 262 hit year) had best months of 1129 and .960 ... and a final .869.
Ichiro in 2007 had a best month of 1002 -- and a final .827.
The fact that Ichiro's OPS is up to .768 is obviously a good thing. The fact he is "having" to run a 30% LD rate in order to produce "only" a .768 OPS is what concerns me.
My eyes-on history tells me this. In baseball, men in their primes ... age 27 ... typically only hold onto "the zone" for a max of about 6 weeks at a time. Likewise, they typically only slump for a max of about 6 weeks. Those are the extremes, and most slumps and streaks don't extend that far.
Last year ... 2011 ... what did Ichiro do in April?
2011: .328/.380/.378 (.758) ... 39 hits, 6 doubles, 12-RBI, 10-BB; 6-K (28 games)
2012: .316/.337/.430 (.768) ... 25 hits 4 doubles, 1-3B, 1-HR, 9-RBI; 3-BB; 7-K (19-G)
My question is simply: What is he "likely" to do the rest of the way?
He hit .758 last April and .645 for the season. My concern is simply ... if this IS Ichiro, on fire, and he's hitting "only" .768 ... what does that say about the coming year on the whole?
What I'm hearing, (not sure if this your intent), is that Ichiro is hitting great ... and you expect another 5 months of the current Ichiro, so the year is going to be great.
I know Ichiro is a special hitter. He breaks many standard rules. But, in the best hitting year of his entire career, he had a 500 point OPS gap between best and worst months of production. Forgotten in the wake of his 262 hit season is that his April that season was a .613 OPS on a .255 BA, where he managed only 26 hits. He would ultimately go on to amass 50 hits in 4 of the six months, (but June that year, he managed only a .697 and 29 hits).
My disconnect from the current view of Ichiro is not based on watching Ichiro. It is based on watching players like Andruw & Chipper Jones for 15 years. I learned year after year that April production doesn't define an entire year. That even when you are speaking about the most consistent hitters of their generation, (and Chipper was one), that they run hot & cold ... multiple times ... every year.
It was more noticeable with someone like Andruw, who looked like Babe Ruth at the plate one week and looked like he was swinging an armful of laundry the next. But, it's true of all hitters ... even Ichiro.
So, Ichiro today is on fire ... and has a .768 OPS. Albert Pujols is struggling badly and has a .601 OPS.
What would you project their final 2012 slashlines to be? Which guy is most likely to post an OPS over .800 this year? And is that answer more accurately derived from how each "looks" at the plate at this instant ... or is it more accurately derived by viewing their historic stat lines ... factoring in age ... park ... and yes, including how they look at the plate as PART of that assessment?