Add new comment

Taro,
If Ichiro were 31 going on 32, I would almost certainly agree with you.
In the end, my analysis leans heavily on 2011 data. Why? Because he was 37 ... not 27.
Every year forward, from about age 30 onward, the odds that an abberant year is in fact age-related goes up. It NEVER goes down, (unless influenced by pharmacueticals).
There are two interpretations of 2011 Ichiro. Age was catching up to him. This "caused" his massive swoon in BABIP, which obviously influences lots of other stats. The alternative explanation is that after running 350 BABIP numbers for a decade, Ichiro just had a really, really, really run of bad luck, which lasted for 161 games, (or more accurately, for the last 5 months of the 2011 season.
Note: In 2011, Ichiro had a .345 (normal for him) BABIP in April. His BABIP months in 2011:
Apr: .350
May .227
Jun .323
July .265
Aug .301
Sep .301
That's five consecutive months "signficantly" below his previously established normal level, including two months that are 85+ points below his norm. If that's one random month, it's random. If it's 5 consecutive months, that's no longer random.
I have argued previously that the first thing to go for star players is not "ability", but rather "consistency".
At this instant, heading into the final game for April, Ichiro has a BABIP of .292 for the season. If Matt or Doc were looking solely at the stats of ANY player in MLB over the last six months in regards to BABIP (absent all other data), and knew that they were 38 years old, they would both accept without question that the current .292 was a perfectly reasonable BABIP and that there would be little reason to expect improvement.
They are contending that he is BOTH hitting many more LDs, (supported by data), and hitting them much harder, (supported by direct observation -- but not supported through BABIP, HRs or ISO).
They view the BABIP as unlucky ... I view the LD% as lucky. We all agree that the miniscule skew cannot possibly continue, (though I contend that a skew of only 50ish for the year is completely possible for an aging player).
Except that his April BABIP and slash-lines are nearly identical to his August and September of 2011 numbers: Matt and Doc *see* a completely new Ichiro. His stats for latest 3 months of play:
Aug: .292/.313/.366 (.678) -- .301 BABIP
Sep: .268/.303/.374 (.678) -- .301 BABIP
Apr: .281/.300/.375 (.675) -- .292 BABIP
I will gladly concede that it is possible that Ichiro "should have" posted a .780 OPS for the month of April. That wouldn't change my analysis one whit, because I expected before the season began that he's more likely to start quick and fade. And even if he has been unlucky, you do not get that luck "back". Going forward, you assume neutral luck.
In truth, I believe a .750 month of May is completely plausible. But, a .538 month of June or July is not only plausible, but increasingly likely.
At this point, my growing fear is that we end up with no resolution to this issue, because the longer they play him non-stop, the greater the risk of a 15 of 60-day trip to the DL.
In the end, Ichiro's value is tied up almost exclusively in his BABIP. He has no power, (even this season, it's barely above 100, while he's "raking"). He has no walk rate, (on pace for only 21 walks), and the improvement to the rest of the team, change in batting order, and general decline in "fear" of Ichiro means he is unlikely to continue getting his baker's dozen intentional passes.
In the end, unfortunately, even if I could watch him, I suspect it wouldn't make much difference. My template for line drive hitting was formed by Chipper and Andruw and Sheffield. I expect if I was watching Ichiro I'd shrug ... and probably be unimpressed, because I wasn't watching Ichiro guide ground balls through the infield for the last decade. I have no baseline to compare him to ... him.
But, for all the talk of luck or unluck, in the end, it will come down to production. By year end, Ichiro's BABIP will be back up to .330+ ... or it won't. His OPS will be above .700, or it won't. In fact, there is only one thing we know with certainty. By October, Ichiro will be 5 months older than he is today.