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Taro's picture

Interesting trade-off for Ichiro this year. Hes abandoned the Ackley swing, but stepping further back in the box.
I'm not suprised that Ichiro is hitting the ball harder. Hes gained an extra fraction of a second to react. His IH% should further decline (just a hair longer to run+age), but keeping things in perspective it should still be well above-average.
Overall, its likely that Ichiro runs a high BABIP with his skillset, but probably not as high as his career marks once the LD% starts to regress. His power should recover (if it doesn't, its a concern).
A quick rundown based on career averages for outcomes (with a markdown to IH%) could figure out a rough xBABIP for Ichiro this year. It will almost certainly be well above .300.

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