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I liked Lopez, really did. I think I called him a hacking hack of a hack, you may remember. But I meant that in a way that related to his belief that he never saw a pitch he didn't like. For two years he hit a bunch of extrabase rockets (126 in '08-'09) and he didn't really luck ito them. In '08 his BABIP was .306 and it was only .270 the next year, which may have been his best.
His LD% was 20.3 in '08, and then 18.5 in '09. It was between 18.2% and 18.6% in 05, 06 and '10, as well. So he did't really do anything he hadn't done before.
HIs flyball rate was a career high 40.8% in '09 but was 35.6% in '08. Most ofhis career was around 38%. He did have a career low GB/FB rate in '09, but in '08 it was the 2nd highest of his career.
And then he fell off the face of the hitting planet after '10. Hard to figure. Peripheral numbers don't really show it.
He did see far fewer FB's after '09 and more curves and changeups, therein lies the answer, I suppose.
In '08, when he hit .292 he saw 64.7% FB's, 7% curves and 8.4% changes.
In '09, when he hit .272 he saw 57.1% FB's, 9% curves and 8.8% changes.
in '10, when he hit .239 he saw 53.2% FB's, 12% curves and 9.4% changes.
Ergo: An answer I think, even though his contact rates remained the same.
Funny, how one less fastball every ten pitches might destroy a guy's numbers (assuming there weren't off the field issues). What is that, every 2.5 PA's for Lopez?
He was good. He isn't now.