M's 3, Tigers 2 - Ryan and Jaso
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=== Brendan Ryan ===
Folks are singing the praises of using Ryan in the 2 slot. Does SSI see the bright side of this one, as well?
SSI loathes this idea. We'll tell you exactly why.
We understand the notion that Ryan can be "pesky" from the 2 slot, making "productive outs," and having some of those hit-and-run grounders go through. The proposition is to maximize the value of Ryan's batted balls. Also, Tony LaRussa used to put Dave Henderson #2 behind Rickey, in front of the Bash Brothers, because he got the fastballs he craved (Hendu never could hit a wrinkly pitch).
Problem is, Ryan can't hit good velocity; for one thing, he has a real big right hand swing for a light-hitting middle infielder. His career run value on fastballs is way below zero. The only strengths he has, are on pitches below 85 MPH. You're moving him into a spot at which he'll see more heaters?
There is data to amplify Dr. D's anxiety. Ryan hits considerably worse, for his career, in the #2 slot than he does in the #8 or #9. His EYE ratio is 24:80 in the two slot, and a much better 80:150* at the bottom of the order. His SLG has dropped from .350 to .310 when moving to the two.
Ryan looks like a classic #2 hitter, a "contact" hitter who can't hit well. In this specific case, all you're doing is giving lots of extra AB's to the very last person who needs 'em. Two Thumbs Down on Ryan at #2.
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=== Saunders #9 ===
This is about ten degrees off subject, but Michael Saunders is as good a bunter as you'll ever see at his size. Carew was a great bunter. Little O was. Brett Butler was. Ichiro is. None of them are six foot five.
Hitting 9th, he functions as an extra leadoff hitter, which is cool, and if I'm him I'm bunting once every other game. Until the third baseman is wayyyyyyyyyy in on the grass.
The defense cannot shift Michael Saunders and put the 3B at the usual 3B spot. The 3B has to play IN on Saunders, because he can routinely drop bunts right down the line, away from the pitcher. And what happens when you shift Saunders, and the 3B is in on the grass? The entire 50% left side of the infield is unoccupied. Shifts are shifts, but 50% of the field unattended? No possible way.
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=== Jaso #6 ===
SSI's author was lukewarm on Jaso this winter. No, lukewarm understates it. He was cool towards Jaso ... everything understates it. Dr. D looked at video and predicted a weak rest of his life at the plate, and Dr. D alsospent the first week or two arguing that the roster spot should be used to better effect.
SSI's audience buried the microphone in a mountain of crinkled Dixie cups. They were right. Dr. D had seen 2011 film in which Jaso swung a declerating bat, like Casey Kotchman. Ask Moe what the matter is with a decelerating clubhead. Fatal flaw, emphasis on "fatal." Don't try to play golf if you're decelerating the putter. Don't even try to play baseball with a swing that doesn't accelerate aggressively through the hitting area. It's about "trueness" in the swing.
Dr. D panned Jaso, but he was wrong. It's a post for another day, but Jaso is acclerating the bat through the zone extremely well, as well as any player on the Mariners' roster. Even that sac fly in the 9th, lifting a tough LHP breaking ball off his shins, to the pull field no less ... that was impressive, man. Note well that Eric Wedge called Jaso's win wayyyy ahead of time, the moment he pinch-ran Kawasaki and flushed his DH for the night.
You're talking about a player who had 59 walks vs 39 strikeouts the year before last, with a .378 BABIP. John Jaso is a young player who has had one excellent year and one terrible one. He has started 2012 in his excellent mode. You take it from there.
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We all fussed and fretted about playing time in early April. Playing time shakes out. The guys who hit good will wind up being in there sooner or later and by "later" we mean "by May 15." Jaso sat early, but the cream rises to the top.
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Big day for Sgt. Wedge,
Dr D