SABR Candyland
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As we've mentioned a time or three, you can get about $30 per month's worth of value for $3 per month at Bill James Online. One of the Disney "Lands" at the site is the weekly column ... this week it had James' scouting report, er, notes 'scuse me, on the Mariners' visit to Fenway.
It's behind the pay wall, but BJOL sez us that they don't mind excerpts with credit, so .... here are a few of the things that impressed the Founding Father about the M's on Tuesday ...
The Mariners are physically impressive.
Blake Beavan is a beast; he looks like he is 6-7, and his shoulders are huge. (He is 6-7, listed at 240). Saunders, Smoak and Seager are all physically very impressive—big, strong kids, Carp and Ackley to an extent as well.
Dr. D remembers during the 1989-1992 period, how the M's front office used to complain about the Oakland Bash Brothers' clubs being so physically superior to the Mariners' teams of that time. "They are physically impressive, and they can back up that impression with performance," one of them said. Think it was Armstrong. That was the phrase, physically impressive.
It goes directly to Zduriencik's eye for ballplayers -- remember, the challenge is to find ballplayers that are talented compared to other good ballplayers. It's an interesting topic of discussion -- does Jay-Z include physical power on his checklists, in addition to the simple ballplayer hand-eye coordination that you find in a Nick Franklin or Kyle Seager?
And by the way, isn't it interesting that James singles out Kyle Seager as uncommonly physically powerful for an infielder? You're not talking about your average shlub fan with James. He's been around ballplayers for decades now.
Don't kid yourself that Blake Beavan's place in line isn't influenced by subliminal factors. :- ) To us he's 4 strikeouts a game and living on borrowed time. To them he's Herman Munster, able to throw the ball into a teacup.
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[Furbush's name is bad but] not necessarily worse than his delivery. Fur Bush, a left-hander, plants his lead foot (his right foot) about 18 inches toward first base and to the first-base side of his entire body, then tilts toward third and flings his body over his left foot so that he has no base whatsoever—no weight on the ground--at the moment of his delivery. It does give him a really good downhill plane with what is in essence a sidearm short-arm delivery, but I’ll be amazed if he can stay healthy and throw strikes with that delivery.
We've had a lot of fun with his delivery since the M's acquired him. But I hadn't really thought of it this way, the idea that his weight is being (hyper) floated at the moment he releases the ball.
"Staying healthy and throwing strikes" is Jamesian for "potential to make progress."
Furbush has live stuff, really live stuff, but can you even visualize him with a conventional delivery? At this point it's really just best to hope that he can get some years together as a max-effort short reliever. The question is whether his propensity to center pitches can be buffered through the bullpen role. James' comment, for me, just about sounds the death knell as to his future as a starter.
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Mariners first baseman Justin Smoak has now made FOUR absolutely horrendous defensive plays in three innings. In the fourth inning Daniel Nava grounded a ball to his right, maybe three to four feet to his right and not hard-hit. I don’t know if his weight was moving the wrong way or he didn’t pick up the ball or what, but Smoak just watched the ball roll past him, as if nobody could possibly expect him to field a softly-hit ground ball four feet from him. In the fifth inning there was a ground ball to him with a runner on first; he threw off-line to second, David Ortiz safe at second, resulting in a 3-6-3 fielder’s choice at first base. Two batters later Will Middlebrooks was picked off first base; Smoak made a yet worse throw to second, and Middlebrooks was safe at second, credited with a stolen base (I thought it should have been an E-3.) In the sixth inning Daniel Nava popped the ball up behind first base, not a super easy play with a light rain falling but an obviously catchable ball. Smoak overran the ball, staggered, allowed it fall two feet behind him, then looked around at the other infielders as if somebody else should have caught the ball for him. This is a kid who has a thousand-plus major league plate appearances and it hitting .225 with a .685 OPS. Wow. How long can you ride a hot prospect reputation and a cool name?
Breaking news. . ..Smoak made it through the seventh without messing up a play in the field.
:: he stops short :: I don't think that Bill was aware of Smoak's hammy, but still. If Justin Smoak is, as we type, a -20 runs defensive 1B at first, then he has been the single biggest drag on the M's won-lost record.
James' remark calls into question the wisdom of deploying Smoak as a fulltime player. Hey, other players, such as Alex Liddi and John Jaso, have to learn their craft without playing daily.
We should take a poll as to whether Smoak should be one of four Mariners (Ichiro, Montero, Ackley) who are above fighting for playing time. I'll bet the poll would run 95-5.
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This is now Josh Beckett’s fifth good outing in six starts, not that you would necessarily know that by reading the newspapers. His Game Scores are 55, 56, 57, 68, 24 and 76.
Beckett was simply tremendous against the Mariners, and Lester was really good too, 94 MPH lasers all around the strike zone in unpredictable places.
I know that it sounds like whining, that it's something you hear all the time. But it says here -- and we'll get to Mal's analysis in a bit -- that the Mariners have simply seen an inordinate number of excellent pitches.
Siiiigggghhhhhhh,
Dr D