Kevin Gausman, RHP, LSU - SSI pre-draft $0.01
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=== You Won't Get Any Arguments About ... ? ===
... Gausman being worthy of a top-5 pick. Experts don't think that this draft has any player who stands out as a #1 overall, nor that it has the embarrassment of riches that a few others have had ... last year Anthony Rendon was a typical 1-1 but went #6 overall. In 2006, you had Max Scherzer, Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw going outside the top five (behind Longoria, Morrow and others).
Mark Appel, Kevin Gausman, Kyle Zimmer, and Max Fried aren't considered up to the Hultzens, Bauers, Coles and Bundys of last year by (1) the general consensus or (2) by me, for what that's worth. You've got two exciting high school hitters, one college catcher, and Appel and Gausman that look worthy of the top five.
Of course, Jay-Z may know things that we don't, as he did with Danny Hultzen last year. Exactly nobody outside of pro baseball expected Hultzen to go top five, but Zduriencik's judgment turned out to be right. Who knows? Maybe Max Fried really is Clayton Kershaw or maybe Stephen Piscotty really is Carney Lansford. If so, Zduriencik will let us know... after the draft.
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=== What's Fresh About 'Im ... ? ===
Gausman reportedly holds 94-97 MPH deep into games, always has, a la Brandon Morrow when he came out of college.
Dr. D loves his motion, all but the arm bang on decel, that is. He's long and lanky, kicks the knee real high and drives his wallet at the hitter just like James Paxton does. You want easy velocity, this is your guy. Also, Taro will love the low position of his elbow on the backstroke.
He's a college pitcher with the K/BB to back it up -- the Billy Beane pitcher with as high a chance of success as you could reasonably expect. As far as his health prospects go ... check, check and check.
Added bonus: super long legs, long stride, probably meaning the sneaky-close release point and the "high perceived velocity" on his fastball. Hitters have complained about this too.
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By all accounts, Gausman has a really scary straight changeup, that his arm action on it is brutal, that he comes through on the change just as hard as he can fire his arm and ..... whoop, the yo-yo comes back on the ball and the botttom falls out of it.
Scouts loathe this two-pitch fastball-changeup arsenal, in principle, causing Gausman to be underrated. More on that in a sec...
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