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EA,
You might be right. But my opinion of Smoak hasn't changed since he was acquired.
My read on his minor league stats was AAAA player. After listening to Doc's disection of all the plusses of his swing and physical attributes ... I doubled down. He's a AAAA with absolutely nothing to actually improve. Every now and then he'll have a hot streak ... hit .850 during it ... and the "you've won a BRAND NEW CAR!!!" sirens start going off. But, if you're an .850 hitter ... when you streak, you hit .950 or 1050.
If you're a .700 hitter ... you hit .850 when you're "in the zone".
I still hold (slim) hope that Smoak might be another Carlos Pena ... that the hold back here is mental ... and that maybe one more year of maturity might turn on that last lightbulb.
But ... what I see in the numbers is a guy who has plus-plus patience and spotty power. Love his eye. But, that .250 AAA average has translated into a .230 MLB average spanning over a thousand ABs. His *CAREER* .263 BABIP includes a .250 BABIP in Arlington.
He's Tony Batista with more walks and fewer HRs. Batista managed a .257 BABIP for a 5,000 PA career.
When he's dialed in, Smoak looks like a star. But he's only dialed in during weeks with Mayan holidays. Though he doesn't have a significant difference between RH and LH hitting ... maybe that switch hitting is suppressing his potential on both sides.
I know lots of guys have left Safeco and blossomed. I don't think Smoak would be one.