Echo Canyon: Justin Smoak
... Echo Canyon being about as much as I can think of right now, to refer to a shout-and-answer at SSI :- ) Cool Papa Bell shoutz,
Doc, what is your take on Cameron's post about Smoak?
Hmmmmm ... which said, what ... ok, here's the article.
:: taps chin :: The key premise is here:
But, at this point, history suggests that those hopes are probably not well founded.
In the last 30 years, there have been 55 first baseman (including Smoak) who have been given 1,000+ plate appearances through their age 25 season. Every single one of them hit better than Smoak has, and we’re not just talking raw numbers that can be explained away by Safeco Field or the change in run environments. By wRC+, which accounts for both a player’s home park and the average performance of the league at the time, Smoak’s 87 is the worst of the 55 players on the list.
=== Methodology, Dept. ===
All right, we can rephrase that premise by saying "Other first basemen who were given full-time jobs at ages 23 and 24 did better than Smoak did. Some a little better, some a lot better." The key editorial here is 1000+ PA's, which is a subjective (GM's) decision. :: taps chin again ::
So, what do we think about this editorial filter? Let's cull from the herd all first basemen who were given jobs at 23-24, like Smoak was, and look at those organizational Golden Boys. Let's not look at those who were kept in the minor leagues at ages 23-24 .... no, that's not right. The criteria is, 1000+ PA's, so those who were given jobs at age 24 will have fewer than 1000 PA's and will not be competing with Smoak.
Really we're talking about those first basemen who were given fulltime jobs at 22 and, at the latest, 23....
Hold it. Just checked Smoak's page. He had 900 PA's through his age 24 season ... he right now is in his age-25 season, in the process of that season now. We don't know what his age-25 season will be yet. I'm confused. Why "through age 25 season" when that doesn't include Justin Smoak's record? He's still in the process of constructing that record. By the end of his age-25 season, his OPS+ could easily be 95 or 100, not 87.
A disagreement with the methodology first off: "Smoak's 87 wRC+ is the worst of 55 players who completed their age-25 seasons with 1000 PA's" doesn't include Smoak himself. The characterization "last of 55" makes Smoak sound like a radical outlier, like everybody else is 110-150 and Smoak is far below the pack. Where would a 94 wRC+ rank among these 55 players? Within a few points of the middle of the pack. Smoak could still easily climb well into the pack by the end of this year.
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=== Failure To Launch, Dept. ===
Forget all that for a second; we're going to lose clarity in quibbling about the method. So let's just grant this general premise, in a form less edited against Smoak, and proceed from here: Of those 1981-2011 first basemen who were given ML jobs at age 22-23, Justin Smoak's performance has been toward the bottom of the pack. That characterization is fair, and significant.
Two SSI reactions to that, one UP and one DWN.
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DWN: this factor suggests to me that Justin Smoak will not make baseball's Hall of Fame. My favorite marker for early HOF trajectory is "good ML player at the age of 22." There are guys who raked at age 22, who were 100-RBI men at age 22, and I'm guessing that you'll generally find that they become $100M players.
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UP: Jack Zduriencik expressly stated, before 2012, that Justin Smoak should never have been in the big leagues at the ages of 23 and 24 - well, certainly not at 23. Z has made clear his opinion that Smoak was rushed, and rushed badly, to the majors.
Z also warned, in clear terms, that 2012 is NOT considered a make-or-break year for Justin Smoak: it is a developmental year, according to Zduriencik.
If you're a Mariners fan, Jack Zduriencik's opinions matter to you, because they're going to drive roster decisions. Zduriencik has stated that 2012 will not be the appropriate year to judge Justin Smoak a failure.
Ron Shandler of BaseballHQ echoed this:
Strong April, solid September 2011 bookend otherwise disappointing soph season which included loss of his father, and loss of 2H PT to jammed thumb and broken nose. 2H collapse of both plate skills and power indicates that adjustments are still needed. Keep 2012 expectations modest, as he is still work-in-progress.
In other words, HQ read Smoak as still early in his development arc, with a lot to learn before his game jells. It also advised some perspective as to the extenuating circumstances resulting in Smoak's 90 OPS+ to date.
Bill James, source three, echo'ed the above when we asked him about it. He compared Smoak loosely to Carlos Pena, who needed a long time to learn, and who then at age 29 posted a .286/.411/.627 season after years of disappointment.
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=== Majoring In (the) Minors, Dept. ===
All right, now what happens when we compare Smoak's age 23-24 seasons to those first basemen -- or left fielders, let's say; we're talking about hitting, correct? -- who weren't even in the major leagues at age 23?
Looking at last year's starting ML first basemen ... Carlos Santana would not have made this "1000 PA's by age 25" filter, because he wasn't allowed in the majors at age 23. He would be considered a "failure" to a greater degree than Smoak, because he didn't graduate to the majors at all at age 23. Santana is raking now, of course, with a 122 career OPS+.
Mike Morse posted a 147 OPS+ last year for the Nationals; he wasn't a quality ML hitter at age 23.
Carlos Lee ... at ages 23-25 he was very mediocre and had a line roughly comparable to Smoak's so far; he jelled only at age 26 and later became very rich.
Ryan Howard, a notorious figure in cyber-M's-ville, was not a quality ML hitter at age 23... he wasn't in the majors at all at age 23, and if we recall correctly there were locals recommending a trade for him, and various authors saying that the time had passed to give up on Howard. Correct?
We could go down the line, but you're going to reach an obvious conclusion. The fact is that many good ML hitters were not yet capable of hitting ML pitching when they were 23. Neither was Smoak. Once you compare Smoak to hitters who (1) were mehhhh in the bigs at 23, and to (2) hitters who did not make the bigs at 23, you've got a relevant capture of his career arc.
How many hitters couldn't hit MLB pitching very well at age 23? Most of them. Those who could, threatened to establish HOF-type career arcs. No, I wouldn't bust a hitter's chops for not raking in the American League at age 23 or 24. Neither would I give up on him for not doing so. Neither do real GM's give up on hitters for not becoming stars by age 24.
The decision of Smoak's teams to throw him into the fire at age 23 is the "live" issue here.
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=== Blame Smoak? or the Organizations' Projections? ===
Okay, now we're ready to answer Cool Papa. My take? Smoak wasn't one of those players who was ready to excel at age 23, age 24. That's all. It's somewhat unusual that his organizations pushed him up front-and-center, despite the fact that he wasn't yet ready.
Smoak isn't hitting well in the first half of his age-25 season, either, and he doesn't look real good as we speak. That's frustrating. It's not decisive, for reasons analogous to those listed above. He's got a lot of competition rising up around him.
In this organization, Smoak is getting to where he's going to have to fight for his job, but that's not the same thing as saying "History advises us that Justin Smoak is done." It advises us no such thing.
How did Raul Ibanez do at age 25? Jose Bautista? Alex Gordon? Kevin Youkilis? Mike Morse? Jayson Werth? Josh Willingham? Nelson Cruz? Any number of current MOTO hitters were actually in the minors at 24, 25, 26. Or were absolutely nowhere, yet, in the majors.
The sound conclusion out of this? Most "Golden Boy" org darlings who MLB general managers deem worthy of age-23 jobs are --- > more ready to hit than Smoak was. GM's thought that Smoak would be an early bloomer, and he turned out not to be. That's an interesting observation, one that Jack Zduriencik and Ron Shandler made before the season started.
Cheers,
Jeff