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Great piece, Doc.
But, I gotta admit to a chuckle when you close with "Who would've thought AROD would be *done* (my emphasis) at 36?
I get what you're saying ... he's no longer a superstar. But, I think it does show how easy it can be to fall into the "absolute" rhetorical pit when one isn't looking.
AROD had a 112 OPS+ for the season. (I'm certain you weren't implying the 110 OPS+ numbers from Saunders and Seager are indicative that they are "done").
On more occasions than I would like to admit, I have myself posted opinions that (unintentionally) crossed the line of strong to insulting. But, in all honesty, I'm still amazed that people continue to be amazed that athletes actually age.
Jeter posted a 90 OPS+ at age 36. He bounced back ... and had an exceptionally good 2012 campaign. But, I've been bemoaning the ignorance of age arcs since 2008.
My experience and observation (back up by Bill James way back in 1987), says ... first age decline tends to hit right after age 30. For most (but not all) players the FIRST decline is "modest". Then, for those who were good enough to withstand the first decline, there is a second cliff that hits around age 35/36. It's mostly only the superstars that make it past this period as regulars.
I remember being dismissed when I said Teixeira would begin declining much earlier than most. (Tex had a 116 OPS+ this year and is only 32). The difference between an 8-year for a 25-year old star (like say, Miguel Cabrerra), vs. a 29-year-old, (like say, Tex), is HUGE.
IMO, the steroid era has seriously clouded the issue and created completely unrealistic expectations in regards to player aging, (which is exacerbated by the focus of attention on the handful of superstars that actually do survive into their late 30s, while ignoring the spate of players who matched early career production but faded quickly.
Fielder and Sexson are not the same hitters ... but for every Ibanez or Jeter who stays productive late, there is a Sexson or Andruw Jones or Brian Giles that fades more quickly and ceases to be thought of as a "superstar" directly because they played too many extra seasons being merely "pedestrian".
Honestly, how many people remember guys like Hafner or Derrek Lee as even being in the discussion of best bat in the game? Or, what about Brian Giles or Vlad Guerrero?
The reality of age is skewed due to focus on the few who beat the odds, instead of remembering the scores of guys like Mattingly or Dale Murphy (or even Junior), who were actually the norm.
The paradox with aging players is ... if you want to give AROD the best chance at having a 30-HR season ... you need to play him LESS. Play him at 100% for 120 games instead of 90% for 155 ... (or is common with aging players 90% for 120 games with the other 40 on the DL).