SSI Buys In On Russell Wilson
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Original article from August 25th.
At the bye, the Fran Tarkenton comp gains traction: Fran was amazingly self-possessed and calm during a scramble or rollout, able to see multiple receivers while evading tacklers. He was primarily a precision guy, preferring sure gains, but also very comfortable going down the field when the play was "brainy."
After 10 games, it is clear that Wilson's over-the-top release, and natural ability to move into passing lanes, trump any questions about his height.
Wilson's poise is off-the-charts, the game "slows down" for him, he's improving on a game-by-game basis and it looks 97% clear that the Seahawks have a 21st-century quarterback to move forward with.
As of Nov. 13th, Wilson settles in for Dr. D as a 21st-century interpretation of Fran Tarkenton.
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=== Escapability ===
After the Bronco game, Field Gulls ran a stat that captured what will be the Grand Theme of Russell Wilson's rookie season. The stat ran something like, Wilson dropped back 25 times and got 11 early pressures. Of those 11 pressures, he scrambled left two times, scrambled up the middle two times, scrambled right six times, and got sacked once. The scrambles left and middle all went for 4-11 yards, the scrambles right either went for the 4-11 yard thing or else he threw short.
The takeway: never once did he step up in the pocket and try to punish the defense downfield.
I mean, those aren't the actual numbers, but that was the sense of the numbers.
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Russell Wilson, we're sure, can't see that well when the pocket caves in. He therefore has spent his QB career (1) converting busted plays (dropbacks with 2.0 and 2.5 and 3.0 second pockets) to decent outcomes, as opposed to (2) rolling the dice and heaving the ball downfield for a long gain or a defensive interception.
You can conclude 11,000 different things from this Wilson tendency. SSI's conclusion is this: you've got a rookie QB with the extraordinary skill of limiting damage. It's part of who he is, always has been, as a 5'9" quarterback.
Neither I, nor Pete Carroll, want a QB throwing the dice when the defense has a huge advantage (an early collapsed pocket). If Russell Wilson wants to scramble left, scramble right, and salvage 5 yards out of every collapsed pocket, hey. That is a huge plus. Now let's talk about what he does when the pocket doesn't collapse.
It's like saying that Wade Boggs had a unique ability to foul tough pitches off on 1-2 counts, and work himself back to 3-2. No way am I complaining that he never got me a single home run on 1-2 counts. The bottom line is, his OBP was .300* after 1-2 counts and everybody else's was .200.
I therefore have much less interest, than the awesome analysts at Field Gulls do, in seeing whether Russell Wilson can step up in the pocket under a 6-man rush. He wants to slant for six yards running, or dump it off into the flat, great. We'll get them when the pocket holds up. Conventional wisdom says, learn to beat them downfield. SSI's observation is, there are about three or four QB's in the NFL who should be attempting to do that. The rest should think in terms of damage control.
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=== Ma-ai ===
Discussed elsewhere :- )
Russell Wilson uses ma-ai greatly to his advantage. He already has a very fine feel for when the defenders are closing at his knees. He is very comfortable taking an aikido-style two-step angle off the approach while keeping his eyes downfield.
Friday he had two long runs, and the ma-ai advantage was obvious. Defensive linemen are making drunken charges, so to speak, being focused on beating their men on the line and not able to focus on what Wilson plans to do at the last moment. Wilson then adroitly and calmly steps around the charging linemen at clever angles.
Obviously this dance is not new to Wilson. And unlike most rookie scrambling QB's, Wilson doesn't simply tuck the ball and turn "desperate running back," eyes wide, as the pocket collapses into him. He's used to being nimble, escapable, at the same time he seeks opportunity downfield.
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=== Size ===
Offensive coordinators talk about wanting a QB to be able to see over the line. I think that's mostly for public consumption. I think what they're really talking about, is a quarterback being little, weak, easily injured and unathletic.
Wanting a Jim Everett, Peyton Manning type for the position is, it says here, analogous to wanting a pitcher with a 94 MPH fastball. It's fine to prefer a 94 MPH fastball to an 87 MPH fastball, but that doesn't mean you get to freeze Greg Maddux out of baseball.
Zduriencik is a guy who will trade for Jason Vargas if he thinks he's got the goods; apparently Carroll is a football sabermetrician rather than a football tools scout. So he's into performance and results, rather than into combine stats for their own sake. Seahawk fans may reap the benefits of that courageous decision for quite a few years comin' up here.
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=== Pocket Passing ===
All that said, I was absolutely blown away by Wilson's classic dropback passing on Friday against the Chiefs. For one thing, he doesn't have problems seeing, unless and until the pocket is being pushed right into him. It's true that you're going to lose a little bit of that Dan Marino last-second flick over the line with Wilson. But other than that, the cost seems minimal. Wilson has seen the field just fine, including down the middle, including down the middle late.
He has an almost supernatural touch - considering his age-arc - for throwing a ball juuuuuust beyond a corner's reach. Looove to watch him feather the ball juuust over the corner.
He also has a very quick release once he spots a receiver, and therefore the ball arrives over the corner and below the safety.
He showed good drive on the ball for down-and-outs and comebacks. Honestly, I just didn't expect him to deliver the football with this kind of authority. I thought he'd be a poor man's Michael Vick, with the success based off mobility. Wilson, three games in, is in the Steve Young category, a passer who happens to be extremely mobile.
He's eerily calm, even when running the ball. Now I know what they mean when they say he could have been a top-5 pick if he'd have been tall. To me, he looks like a franchise QB missing a couple of inches.
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We assume that Wilson is going to be the Seahawks' quarterback for the next eight years. If he didn't do enough to start against the Chiefs, he shouldn't have been in the QB competition to begin with. What were you looking for? Whatever it was, he did it. What are you going to do now, say Oh Well Whatever NeverMind?
SSI enthusiastically signs off. Let's get the Wilson show on the road, gentlemen.
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