Add new comment

Using my little stat doohickeys.  First number measures "stuff"; second number measures "command/control":
2011:  .374/ -3.67
2012 pre-DL:  .316/  +2.34
2012 post-DL:  .362/ -3.03
I know the numbers aren't real intuitive, but on the first number higher is better and on the second number, the more negative the better.
"Stuff" measures what percent of "random-y" balls in play hitters would need to convert to singles to reach a .700 OPS against.  Over .300 is good.  Way over .300 is awesome.
My "command/control" thingy tries to measure the ability to avoid balls and "hitter's pitches" while thowing strikes and "pitcher's pitches."  A positive number means giving advantage to hitters and a negative number means taking advantage away from hitters.  A negative number over -1.5 is good, and over -3 is awesome.
[Felix in MLB was .354/-3.93.  Brandon Maurer, a very good, but not tip-top prospect: .318/-1.78.  Erasmo: .301/-2.48.  Jose Campos in 2011 was death to hitters:  .370/-6.36.]
During his "wobbly knee" period, Paxton was, on average, "losing" plate appearances to the hitters by giving them either balls or pitches they could hit with authority.  But, despite the lack of command/control, he was still limiting the hitters' production with his stuff, such that he was still over .300 on that scale.
Post-DL he was back to pretty much exactly where he was in 2011.
In short, if you exclude the pre-DL period, Paxton's walks are like Giancarlo Stanton's strikeouts.  They don't deny the greatness.  He still scores very high on "command/control" because even with high-ish walks he never gives the hitter anything to hit with authority; when he has to come into the zone, he rarely serves up meatballs.
I think all questions about Paxton were answered by the way he came back from the DL, and the fact that he "wasn't right" during the pre-DL period in 2012.