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A 10% chance at a Russell Branyan/Jose Guillen add for under a million bucks is the going rate, and I'd wager that if JackZ thought the oddswere that low that this would have been a much later NRI instead of major league deal.
They already cast off Figgins, which seems to indicate a flexibility in kicking dead weight which we haven't seen before.
The fact that Bay imploded almost immediately upon arrival in the big apple also bodes well for the potential that a major catalyst for his collapse was psychological. NY can be a rough place, even compared to Boston if your head's not right.
Don't expect to see him on the 25 man in April, but if there are another 5-6 guys to be had like this, I'm down for dumpster diving to get that 3rd add this winter.