Add new comment

I absolutely do not see Tango testing James' biggest claim -- that the high rate of collapse for prospects is because of environmental transition (things like new park, coaching staff, etc.). From what I see, Tango's variables take absolutely no account for changing team or organization.
In fact, I dare say that his study is absolutely nothing new and that numerous others have done the same (or at least it seems so to me). I would infer that it is because the concept James has brought up is still completely over everyone else's head that they can't even hear what he's saying and can only guess at it.
In my interpretation, James' concept here seems to revolve around this anchoring question: "Is there a correlation between established MLB player collapses and established MiLB collapses? If so, what is it?" In Mariner-land terms, "What if the reason(s) Rich Aurilia, Scott Spiezio, and Chone Figgins collapsed is the same reason(s) for Jeff Clement?"
Anecdotally -- and I'm certain James has extensively tested and studied this hypothesis -- it seems that established MLB players collapse most often when they sign large FA contracts with new teams after having significant success with only one organization and prospects fail the most often when they have little-to-no adversity in the Minors.