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I went and read the text...it's lengthy because there's a complex experimental design to explain, but the idea is to capture how reliable veteran MLB performance is and then capture how well the projection schemes do with various types of players. And the conclusion is that minor leaguers are so incredibly unpredictable that you do a better job predicting them if you assuming all of them will be AVERAGE players. That is the equivalent of having a weather prediction model and saying it would be more accurate if it always forecast precisely climatological averages for all grid points. That says that minor leaguers are are not projectable AT ALL whereas big leaguers are and veteran big leaguers are VERY projectable.