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Actually Bill would reply that he has been providing evidence for the reliability of MLE's for 30+ years... also today at BJOL:
In my view, I have been providing evidence for my position constantly for 30 years, and the world and the sabermetric community have been explaining it away and refusing to learn for 30 years, because it requires that people re-think their established assumptions.   When Juan Gonzalez came to the majors in 1991 or 1992, we published projections for him that proved to be absolutely accurate.   When Jason Heyward came to the majors in 2010, we presented projections for him that proved to be extremely accurate. . . .Jason Heyard, and Reid Brignac, and Trevor Crowe, and Ian Desmond.    We publish very accurate projections for a dozen or more rookies every year in the Handbook.   Why is this not evidence that it is possible to do this?
:daps:  Matty