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Honestly, I do not believe that having 9 kids at once is the "optimal" way to build a franchise.
I would be much happier if the club had 2 or 3 relatively young, (28/29) players with proven production over several seasons. But, the club doesn't. This is what I mean when I say "it matters where you start from".
Seattle spent a decade NOT developing talent internally, and the end result was a roster bloated with bloated contracts for declining production. But the 2004-present reality was a direct result of allowing a very, very good team of players going through their prime to age-out simultaneously. When the entire roster crashes into the 32-34 age bracket en masse, the outcome is (IMHO) a foregone conclusion.
The 2000 Ms and 2010 Phillies are scary similar in regards to disregarding the impact of "massed" aging.
By 2004, the Ms had an entire roster of players who would only get worse. The unwillingness to accept the reality of the situation led to the Sexson/Beltre signing. Beltre wasn't all that bad, given the situation, but Sexson was.
My issue with the Ms today - right this minute - is I have zero faith in regards to the production from ANY of the current hitters on the roster. None. Oh, I have my personal favorites, (Seager, Ackley ... which I concede some homerism here, being a UNC alum), Carp, Montero, Jaso and my not-so-favs, (Smoak, Saunders, Trayvon). But, Smoak is the only one I'd suggest has enough of an MLB statistical footprint to feel anything close to confidence in projecting forward, (but how much of this is because Smoak has done basically what I thought he would do from day one, vs. an unbiased analysis?).
Here's a thought experiment. Pretend that the Ms landed Prince Fielder for the 2012 season, (he fell in love with a local stripper who insisted he get divorced and move to Seattle). Anyway ... who would have lost PT ... and what would the WAR difference have been, (assuming exact production from everyone else except those losing PT to Fielder).
Well, Ichiro and Ryan and Figgins don't lose PT. But, Jaso may not be on the team at all. Fielder only played 3 games at DH. So, Smoak is the guy most likely to lose PT ... except as one Jack's annointed, he's the likely winner of the DH sweepstakes.
Montero probably loses PT, as you get mostly Smoak as DH.
The "likely" fall-out from adding Fielder in 2012, (IMO) is that the club makes Smoak a DH, Jaso doesn't make the team and Montero gets a PT reduction.
Jaso LED all Seattle hitters in WAR (3.3) in 2012. Fielder amassed 4.4 WAR, btw.
I get that this is an over-simplification, but adding Jaso instead of Fielder gave the team a LOT of flexibility in regards to PT. Of course, skip opted to continue shoveling Olivo into the lineup ... but that's a different issue. The key here is that all other things being equal, Fielder would have likely kept the best bat on the Seattle team in 2012 off the roster.
Two years ago, I was saying CF was the #1 area of need for Seattle. Then Saunders pops up with a remade swing and shoves my words down my throat and Guti has a really nice showing in the second half of 2012.
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Another arena for "it matters where you start". When your club has ALREADY developed Napoli, Kendrick, Morales, Aybar, Izturis in the recent past, then making a call on Trumbo and Trout starts from a foundation of "Yeah, we have a decent handle on this whole development thing." When you last decade's highlight developmental results are Jose Lopez and Yuni Betancourt, then not only does the notion "We feel good about Smoak" not carry much weight ... it shouldn't carry much weight.
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This "long game" I am proposing BEGAN in the middle of 2011. This "long game" plan has been running for 18 months. That was after giving the "buy happiness" plan almost a full decade to try and work out the kinks.