A little deeper look.
H/R splits, Justin Upton, last 4 years:
2009: .934/.862 (.050 OBP difference is most of it)
2010: .807/.790 (slugged more on the ROAD)
2011: 1.033/.767 (road ISO of .193, had a road BABIP problem)
2012: .924/.670 (did hand injury change swing?)
His road slugging ISOs are .225, .185, .193 and .092, so one bad year and a little bit unlucky. His career home ISO is .241. So maybe you can say "drop 50 points off his power numbers and call it a day" except that by changing his home environs you may start getting different road performances as well.
Could there be a 1 year adjustment period, as you pointed out that there was for Holliday? Sure. But St. Louis was completely foolish for signing Holliday thanks to his home-park stat inflation - until they weren't. His raw stats dropped a bit, but his OPS+ was rock-solid between Coors and St. Louis. The level of his CONTRIBUTION remained unchanged. Would that be enough with Upton to justify the price, or do we need a huge step forward from him?
Look, Upton is not my pride and joy. There's got to be a reason the D-Backs have been willing to trade him basically since he stepped foot in the bigs, and he's not an ideal hitter for our park even with the coming changes. Not my first or second or third choice to fix our woes.
But if Jack was willing to cough up THAT much for him, then I'm curious whether that means he still sees huge upside in the young man and his approach, or whether he really is that desperate and is going to start Bavasi-ing away the minor league talent on a desperate and futile grab at the brass ring.
I still don't know what to think of Upton. I do know we are still looking for offense and wonder where the search will take us next. Maybe back home, with Carp or Wells or an early Zunino promotion. I dunno.
I do know that when Oakland traded for Holliday they gave up some kid named Carlos Gonzalez who's netted the Rockies 16-ish WAR for about 8 million bucks. Sometimes the best trades are ones you don't make. This might be one of em.
Show me the next step, Jack.
~G
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