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I never said it was the whole story.
But, Arizona IS a hitters park.
Upton does have a HUGE skew between home and road.
For his career, Upton on the road IS a mediocre to sub-par offensive OF.
Upton IS a sub-par defensive player.
I am perfectly willing to entertain arguments on "how large" the park factor might end up being.
But nobody has given a SINGLE argument in regards to why one would expect Upton to significantly improve his ROAD production in the future.
Hey, maybe it isn't the park. Maybe he just loathe living out of a suitcase. He hates long plane rides and hotels. Gee ... I'm guessing moving to Seattle is going to be a real boon in that regard! (end sarcasm)
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But, let us put the Holiday road OPS progression beside the Upton ROAD "progression" for the final 4 seasons in their "friendly home" era
Holiday - Upton
.654 - .862
.729 - .790
.819 - .767
.860 - .670
Upton has LOST almost 200 points of ROAD OPS over the past 3 years. Holiday had gained a similar amount.
Thank you for pulling out a way to look at the statistics that sort of proves my point.
Remember, the second half of my argument was that there was nothing in the Upton profile that suggests improvement. However, having viewed his road stats, there IS evidence that he is getting worse.
So, I'll close with a simple question: What is the Upton ROAD production projection for the next 5 years ... especially if he moves to the AL?
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p.s. - Holiday posted an .831 total OPS when he moved to Oakland - only 400 PAs - but yes Holiday's total production DID drop once he left Coors. The question is not "IF" -- the question is "how much?"