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My view on Upton is this:
Career OPS:
Home:.937
Road: .731
Let's say ... for grins and gigles, Upton increases his road OPS by 30 points ... say .760.
What is he going to hit in Safeco? .660? .620?
While the stands have been moved, NOBODY knows the impact that will have just yet. But, IMO, the odds that the change will turn the death-to-RH-bats park into anything remotely close to Arizona is absolute fantasy.
A .760 / .660 combo is only a .710 hitter. If he does NOT improve in his gravy years, then .730/.630 for a .680 bat is the outcome. And he's slightly below replacement level as glove.
IMO, Carp, who has already posted a .791 OPS for Seattle in his one extended stint of healthy PT is VASTLY more likely to be an .800 OPS bat in Seattle than Upton ever would be.
Me? I'm skeptical about Upton having an age 25-28 spike, because I see no evidence of improvement or really attempting to improve. He's basically the same hitter he was 4 years ago. Same eye. Same power, (forgiving the down 2012 campaign), same average.
Players do not get better BECAUSE they age. They get better because they improve something. There's nothing in the Upton background that suggests he's interested in improving anything.
I know many want to believe the park changes are a panacea. But, honestly, does ANYONE believe the park changes are going to turn a .730 hitter into a .930 hitter? Unless Arizona includes its air in the deal, it was a highly risky play with (IMHO), a lot more downside than upside.