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Article on "we were overpaying" and a discussion of Upton's talent level: http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/32035/mariners-shouldnt-over...
The problem with having as much talent as we have now is that we'll ALWAYS be "overpaying" in future trades while simultaneously being blocked on prospects at certain positions.
If we keep Franklin and Ackley and Seager, then where do Marder and Miller play?
If we keep Jaso and Montero and let them catch, then what about Zunino and Hicks?
If we move Saunders to a permanent corner OF position to get Morban in the lineup in a couple of years (or vice versa - Morban might be like Cargo as a nominal CFer) then whither Landry, or McGee, or whomever?
Let's say we re-sign Felix. Woot! We'll also have 5-7 years of E-Ram, Paxton, Hultzen, Walker... and we just ran out of starting spots for every other pitcher currently in the system. Maybe we'd just trade em one by one, or clear out the backlog like the As do with their Harangs and whatnot.
Ackley's not a FA til 2018. Maybe we won't pay all his various arb increases, as well as those of all the rest of his young teammates, so we'd need some other talent available in about 4 years. Not coincidentally, we just drafted a 3B, a SS and a pure 2B this year, as well as a SS last year, all teens. We're planning the next wave. Between that wave and the current players is where the overflow comes in.
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As Doc said, there are only 25 roster spots. Having tremendous players at 26-35 is nice, but only useful if you lose one of the 25 to a snowmobiling accident. You want the best 25 man roster you can get, even if you have to trade more aggregate talent than you get back.
You don't want it to come to that - but it's a side-effect of being good at minor league farming. And if another team won't give up their Stanton for your minor league treasure trove, then you'd better figure something else out. Not to throw away talent, but to give it up for the right pieces that will improve your major league team.
In a vacuum, Upton doesn't thrill me. I don't think he's a game-changer by himself, but as a tipping point to help the offense fill up with productive hitters? He's at least intriguing. Oakland signed some kid named Cespedes, got a couple of awesome half-seasons from bats (like we got with Jaso) and did well enough to compensate for THREE black holes, run an average offense, and back their phenomenal (mostly rookie) performances from the mound.
If we can run a league-average offense next year and deploy the pitching, good things could happen. If a couple more of the young bats take off, we could get really interesting.
But as a GM, you have to figure out how to get that to happen. Upton wasn't Plan A, but he's *a* plan. If his mind is set on not coming here, though, then we need to move on to yet another plan.
~G