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For some reason everyone is ignoring that there may have been another piece from AZ in the deal. I understand that everyone wants to be firm on their opinion and a "maybe"detail makes that difficult, but most of the details are speculative in this situation. Who would even be another piece from Arizona?
I certainly can't give a firm opinion without knowing:
1: entire packages from both sides. I don't think we do and we may never.
2: the true reason Upton declined the trade. I can speculate many things here. We all could. Money on the deal, years, next deal timing, park factor possibly hurting his next deal, buddy Adam Jones said some things about a Front office and coaching staff that are long gone...
3: What contract adjustments were offered by the M's and whether Upton's camp pushed for specifics on negotiating with the Ms or just vetoed in general.
All we have is speculation on those specifics and this math problem is not solvable without more of them.
The general thrust of the deal I understand (assuming it's 4 for one) that's it's a big overpay. I also think that the mariners have a ridiculously easier time getting pitching in their uniforms than established hitting. If your sticking point revolves around how much you like Franklin, I could understand that. If you wouldn't do the trade generally being discussed because you're not convinced Upton would do well enough here, consider the other options. I'm not talking about potential options. If Stanton were available do you think we'd be reading about an overpay for Upton or Stanton? To me it seems the other options are more linked to waiting and hoping, which is a dangerous move. Wait and hope the team does well enough this year that free agents consider it a better destination in just one year. Hope that we are the team that gets Stanton if he's moved in the next year.
If you wouldn't do the deal based on one prospect pitcher I don't think I could agree with that either. I only say prospect because I'd understand not doing it if Felix were involved. The avoidance of Seattle by free agent hitters needs to come to an end at some point. I think we could sign a top tier pitcher next year, anybody confident we could actually ink a top tier hitter? I'm not. At all...
I say all that because different reported packages cover all of Walker, Hultzen and Paxton potentially being in the deal and to me no one of them would stop my interest in the deal going down.