Count me in the camp that initially didn't understand why JZ exchanged Jaso for Morse. The conversation here at SSI has changed my mind and here are the main reasons.
Let's go along with the idea that Jaso is one of your best hitters in 2013, meaning you bat him 3rd in the lineup. Well, what happens when your prime hitter has an obvious achilles heal? If you rely on Jaso in the later innings (implicit with the assumption he is one of your best hitters), you have to accept that he is going to be facing a lot of LH specialist relievers in key situations. Why would you construct a team with such an easily exploitable flaw?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The other aspect of the trade that I find very interesting is how defense is playing out in the determination of the players value. For Morse, he is a bad defender even at the 'easy' positions. Jaso is a bad defender at a hard position. This is the critical source of value differentiation between the players. They both cost you with a glove in their hand, but they hold very different gloves.
What is the chance that the current thinking, call it fangraph thinking for lack of a better term, is exactly backwards? Really, what is the chance that Jaso's poor glove work at a critical position costs you many more wins than Morse's poor glove work in LF? I think the chance is really quite high and here is why.
First, fangraphs thinking hasn't figured out how to judge many aspect of catcher defense, so it doesn't try. Fangraphs thinking does know that it is a lot more difficult to find a functional catcher than a LF which it addresses with a positional adjustment. The positional adjustment between C and LF is a large part of the difference in value between Jaso and Morse. By failing to measure C defense, but still applying a positional adjustment, you are effectively saying only competent catchers get to catch in MLB and therefore all catchers deserve the full benefit of playing a hard defensive position.
I think JZ is saying with this trade Jaso is not a competent MBL catcher, accept in a pinch. Is this the correct assessment? I haven't a clue, but fangraphs thinking positional adjustments tacitly assume big league teams get this call right on average, so why does fangraphs thinking change for the specific case of Jaso? JZ is the second GM in two years to decide Jaso doesn't have a future as a regular cathers in MLB. Why do you think it is reasonable to value Jaso like a catcher, when JZ and Friedman effectively value him as a DH.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So we exchanged one DH for another and should therefore only compare offensive value. Jaso has two huge advantages on Morse. (1) Jaso has exquisite control of the strike zone when facing RH pitchers and (2) he is under club control for three more years. Morse has two huge advantages on Jaso. (1) Morse has the ability to hit a baseball really hard and (2) he has no platoon splits.
While it is generally dismissed by fangraphs thinking, I believe baseball players generally believe in the importance of the batting order and consequently take the traditional roles to heart. I believe getting Ackley, Seager, Smoak, Saunders, and Montero out of the 3-5 batting positions as much as possible until they feel they have earned the position will help them avoid anxiety induced under-achievement.
Add new comment
1