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Kite's picture

Very few teams actually pay for defense. And the guys who get paid for defense, they're generally the best in the game and have a good bat. Guys like Carl Crawford, Ichiro Suzuki, and down the line guys like Brett Gardner. Why do these guys get paid like the Josh Hamiltons of the world if they can't jack 10 HRs a season? It's the Yankees, the Red Sox, that are bidding on these guys. Why are the richest teams in baseball going after speedy, defense, OBP guys, and not HR sluggers in the corners? The rich teams are actively trying to pay for defense and running, "soft" WAR skills, as long as it's the right guy.
Not every GM will pay a 110-RBI guy - I certainly hope not. Especially after the Carlos Lee signing, the Ryan Howard extension, the Jason Bay signing, the Alfonso Soriano debacle...oh, have you noticed something? Every single one of those GMs who made those signings are out of baseball, replaced by SABR guys. Except Amano, but this is the guy who paid a closer $50M. There's a difference in paying Ortiz or Manny, guys who cleared 7 WAR multiple times in their careers, vs paying Ryan Howard, who's had maybe one season where his defense and running didn't cut his value in half. You say every GM pays Ryan Howard $125M, I say you're nuts. Only one GM pays Ryan Howard that much money, and that GM gave Jonathan Papelbon $50M to pitch 9th innings every 3 days and traded Cliff Lee for peanuts.
The thing that gets glossed over is how NEW this stuff is. 2003-2004 is when Moneyball really started taking off in organizations like Oakland, Boston, and New York. The Carlos Lee signing, Alfonso Soriano signing, that happened in 2007. So in the 3 years from 2004 to 2007, you think all 30 GMs in the game suddenly learned sabermetrics, believed in Bill James' theories 100%, and applied them to their signings? Of course not. Paradigm shifts don't happen that fast. Bavasi was still GM back then, and he just started using sabermetrics (inaccurately) in 2007 to make the Bedard deal.
I actually think most current shot callers have a firm grasp of sabermetrics, defense value, base running value, and why OBP correlates better with runs scored than HRs or SLG. I'm guessing every GMs know this stuff by now, and 95% of the time believe it 100%. GMs are smarter now than they were back then. So when you bring up Carlos Lee, Alfonso Soriano, as examples that "Hey look, GMs pay $20M/year for 110 RBIs!" I just shake my head. That was 6 years ago. That was when Bill Bavasi couldn't figure out the 2007 team wasn't actually an 88 win team if you just looked at run differential. A LOT has changed since then.
Nowadays, Yankee fans look at Granderson's 43 HRs, 110+ RBIs, and don't want to resign him. Cashman knows the guy's a hack, his OBP is way too low, his defense is way too bad to earn anything close to Carlos Lee money, and everyone in NY knows he's hitting FA because NYY doesn't think he's good enough. In 2000, you would have been nuts to not think 43 HRs and 110+ RBIs wasn't good enough for NYY. Nowadays, the 2nd and 3rd worst teams in baseball are the only one's bidding on a 30 HR, 100 RBI Josh Willingham, offering him 3 years and $21M, because that sluggers been worth 2-3 WAR a season his entire career. Nowadays, the Angels would rather play a no power, low BA hitter like Bourjos over a 25 HR, low BA hitter like Vernon Wells because Bourjos is worth more with his glove.
You can't keep bringing up old contracts and act like that's how things are now. A lot has changed from even 3 years ago, let alone 6 years ago. Or 10 years ago. The strategic game has changed. How's the game look right now? Angel Pagan, averages 8 HRs, 55 RBIs, .330 OBP, made $40M this year. Nick Swisher, who's good for 25 HRs, 90 RBIs, .360 OBP, made $56M. In what world is +17 HRs, +35 RBIs, +30 OBP, worth $4M/year? A world where Angel Pagan earns 2 wins with his legs and glove, while Swisher earns zero.

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