Add new comment

Who are the cutting edge GMs right now? Theo Epstein, obviously, he's the one who paid Carl Crawford for his defense, probably the first player to make big money off his defense. And in Chicago he's still doing it, signing underrated 2-3 WAR guys like David DeJesus and Paul Maholm last year for $5M a piece. If there's one GM in the world that believes sabermetric stuff 100% it's Theo Epsetin, the guy who gave Bill James his MLB shot, and lucky for him, he has the full support of the organization to test his theories as he pleases.
Andrew Friedman is clearly another one. Why did he trade John Jaso, a guy who clearly was going to bounce back with his BABIP and provide an above average bat at the Catcher position for 2012? Because he was the first one on top of the pitch framing data. You don't replace a strong ROTY candidate like Jaso at Catcher with 37 year old Jose Molina who's bat is Brenden Ryan-esque, unless you believe in the pitch framing data that puts Jose Molina as the best framer in the game (+20 runs), and Jaso as one of the worst (-20 runs). Andrew Friedman bought into catcher defense way before anyone else. Think about it - the one GM who's not shackled at all by his owners, who loves to think outside the box, didn't make moves based on catcher framing until 2012. This stuff is brand freakin' new to GMs too, not just fans. And you're expecting GMs to buy all-in on this stuff and put their jobs on the line the minute they hear about it? Most GMs aren't 20-something year olds like AA or young Theo Epstein, who grew up in a sabermetric environment. Most GMs are like Jack Z in their 50-60s, and those guys grew up in an environment where BA, HRs, and RBIs were king. Old habits die hard.
Finally, Billy Beane's the last one. This is the one GM who would trade his Ace the same off-season he signs a big time FA like Cespedes. If there's any GM in the game who values production and on-paper value over marketing, HRs, narrative, etc. it's Billy Beane and his cold-hearted Moneyball ways. Rumor is Beane was calling Jack Z every day asking about Jaso. Why? Because 10 years after Moneyball, and teams are still undervaluing OBP. Who else would happily trade his top prospect for a "back-up platoon catcher with no power?" The one guy who sees a hitter who OBP'd .380 and .420 vs RHP (who make up 70% of the game) 2 of his 3 years, his potential upside vs LHP if his issues really are just BABIP, his upside in power if last year was legitimate, and has a manager he trusts to use him to his full potential. Beane paid 100 cents on the dollar to get the guy he wanted. And he's laughing all the way to the bank, because in his mind, he paid 50 cents.
You make the argument that because 15-20 GMs pay more for HRs than they do for defense or OBP, that that's the right valuation method. That's a straight up fallacy, an appeal to authority. The way I see it, GMs are a bunch of old guys who grew up thinking BA and HRs were king, and they pay accordingly. There's a reason Brenden Ryan makes $1M in arbitration for 2-3 WAR of production, while any decent slugger who hits 2-3 WAR of production is clearing $6M. The arbitration system was set up by MLB old guys, and that's how they value production. The cutting edge GMs though, they came into the game when they were in their 20s. They grew up on Bill James. They don't see the game the same way, and the moves they make reflect that. They value defense, OBP, they're the guys who buy the 2-3 WAR guys for $5M a pop because who wants to pay Coco Crisp for his defense? The best GMs in the game value defense highly, and seek it out when they can. There's a reason Brian Cashman said Brett Gardner is as good as Carl Crawford. Seriously - the Yankees GM said a corner OF with 15 career HRs in 1600 PAs is as good as a $100M+ player. He doesn't have elite OBP. He doesn't hit for power. What he does do is save 25 runs a season in the OF. And when the richest organization in baseball is saying he should be getting paid like Josh Hamilton, maybe, just maybe, the guys who are trading potential .420 OBPs for 30 HRs are in the wrong.