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Doc loves to talk about extra light bulbs coming on.
Twenty years ago I believed firmly that the people at the top of organizations were not only smart - but that the vast majority of them were probably much smarter than I am. Today, i no longer hold that opinion.
I have watched as the richest, most powerful people on the planet sprinted down a path toward financial Armageddon while ignoring every dissenting voice, every 4th-grade-simple mathematically certain reason for why the house of cards was guaranteed to crumble. And armed with the history of a near perfect repeat of the financial choices made in the 20s, they made the same choice again. Why? Because, almost to a man, they were utterly convinced they were simply smarter than everyone who came before. And their justification for their intellectual arrogance? Because they were rich.
Understand ... Bill James began his battle in the 80s ... but didn't get traction IN THE INDUSTRY until near the end of the 20th century. The richest, "smartest" men in the MLB trusted average, HR and RBI for almost 100 years with blind faith. And they, to a man, were ALL wrong. Oakland proved just how utterly wrong they were.
So, they learned something, didn't they? Probably. But how much? After Moneyball "forced" owners to form SABR teams to keep up with the competition, MLB owners CONTINUED to collectively ignore the PED issue and deposited the HR driven daily receipts until Congressional Hearings forced them to address the situation. Why were they so slow to act? Was it due to more lightbulbs being on than the average fan? No. Greed. Simple greed. HRs sell tickets. Winning sells tickets, but only half the teams can win at any time. But if you aren't winning ... HRs still sell tickets. The spectacle of the 500 foot shot draws fans - creates revenue.
The cognitive dissonancce over the paycheck vs. WAR is simple. Baseball rosters are not assembled JUST to win. The financial considerations are not only first and foremost for many owners - winning is OBVIOUSLY not the priority for many, many organizations, (not that they will ever admit it).
Me? I don't believe for a second that the SABR wave has made owners even one lightbulb smarter than they were during the entirety of the 20th century. It has given tools to their subordinates that "might' be better utilized - so "some" GMs get to employ new theories - (but mostly only if they can justify how this makes more money for the owners).
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The problem here is the self-fulfilling prophecy. Doc nots "all 30" GMs believe the same thing. If that is so, then there will NEVER be a counter example to refute the premise, (whatever the premise might be). And every counter-example of the self-fulfilling prophecy will be dismissed as noise.
The reality that Detroit dropped from 95 to 88 wins after moving their MVP to 3B is ignored. (They made the Series, didn't they?). Yes. They lost in 4 straight to the winner of 2 of the last 3 WS. The Giants, whose HR leader in 2010 was Aubrey Huff with 26 with the #2 "masher" being Juan Uribe with 24. They would net 85 and 84 RBI, just fhi.In 2012, Posey would lead the Giants with 24 HRs. The #2 slugger would have 12.
NOBODY paid attention to the reality that the SFG 2012 team that swept the bat-first Tigers finished 16th - (that is - DEAD LAST) in HRs with a grand total of 103.
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While I do not believe the SABR guys have it "all" correct. I do believe there is "enough" scientific background where they are at least trying somewhat to "get it right". I have no such illusions when it comes to the intelligence and motives of the super rich. When you are set for life 10,000 times over, it is typical, I believe, to assume you are smarter than everyone else in the room - even as you continue to utilize belief systems that were created 100 years ago. The same goes for the vast majority of the players, who were also treated as prima donnas from early childhood.
The near inability of Beane to get ANYONE to buy into his plans in the late 90s is telling. I do not believe for an instant that the dogma of 100 years of "accepted knowledge" vanished overnight.
For me, there is no cognitive dissonance. I resolve the conflicting data with one assumption. The owners really are not that bright. How did they become owners? And how does that make them qualified to understand baseball?