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bsr's picture

Great thread, good points made by all. I would also add that when you are up against aces, handing off to a lights out closer...you have to score runs somehow to win. I think going from zero to one or two mashers is non-linear incremental value against these type of pitchers. The average-solid-at-best hitters that teams like the M's toss out there just can't do anything against the Sabathias of the game. They're stuck trying to get 3 hits in an inning multiple times a game - way too hard. Whereas a slugger has at least the potential upside on their dice rolls.
Basically there's a threshold where without a certain amount of HR/XBH potential, you just fall into the abyss against a good pitcher. We've seen this w/ the M's. Endy Chavez has essentially 0 WAR in a game against Verlander, while Big Papi would maintain some value. And ironically, converting the tough fielding chances has less value when you aren't scoring. You lose 3-1 instead of 5-1, great. Whereas if you've got a competitive lineup keeping you close, suddenly strong fielding becomes much higher leverage.
It all calls for a BALANCED team, above all else. Which all GMs seem to pursue.

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