Dumpster Diving in Stars & Scrubs
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jellison sez,
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The thought occurred to me, and is noted on another site, in the context of the trade for Morales the acquisition of Saunders is rather interesting. If Vargas and Saunders are viewed as interchangeable (both in performance and salary), and Saunders was available to any team willing to pull the trigger, why did the Angels trade Morales for talent they could have acquired without the loss of Morales? Either
(i) the premise of Vargas and Saunders being interchangeable is fundamentally flawed,
(ii) the market expectations for Saunders' contract changed dramatically between December and February, or
(iii) the Angels made a fundamental strategic error. I would be interested in knowing your thoughts. Did the Mariners just acquire Morales for free?
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Thank you ::: jimcarreyriddler :::
The logic is impeccable, Surak, and I'd plump for point (ii) above.
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Precisely the operating advantage to Stars and Scrubs - that the lower players can be replaced by the adroit waiver-wire scrounger. The quintessential Stars & Scrubs roto championship is poached by trading Seager, Ryan, and Ackley for Justin Verlander ... and then going to the waiver wire* and finding Seager again for pennies on the dollar.
Lather, rinse, repeat. The Stars & Scrubs owner is always pushing talent UP the roster ladder, shoving a couple of 2-WAR players into a 3.5-WAR rung by making a trade, and then going back to the garden to grow more 2-WAR players on the cheap.
The mathematical idea of "replacement level player" does not capture the concept of shedding a Jason Vargas and re-acquiring a Joe Saunders at low cost.
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There is a HUGE paradigm problem here: Fangraphs thinking (no slight intended) has it that Jason Vargas has a "correct" valuation. GM's, and Dr. D, don't think that way.
If you and I are playing roto, I want to know which of your players you value at 90c while I value them at $1.10. We can trade -- AND MAKE A FAIR, WIN-WIN trade -- once we figure out who we value differently.
The Angels value Vargas at $1.10. We value him at $0.90. That's not an error; that's what makes a ball game. Let's find out who the better stockbroker is, on this stock sector. Fangraphs amigos are thinking in terms of "somebody made a mistake here, and we'll find out who it was." Not at all!
Predicting the future is an art form. One man's good; another man is great. That's what we're going to find out on Vargas vs Saunders.
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As to the other question, Kendrys Morales although a fine ballplayer had practically zero value to the Angels. Hamilton and Pujols replaced him and he's a 1-year guy with Boras as his agent. They'd have been fine to DFA him.
The Angels got back Jason Vargas, who may well re-up with them, and they feel they got a pretty good 200-inning starter. Sweet!
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The mystery to me, is why Joe Saunders was valued as low as he was. Talk about your dumpster diving.
I've got no idea WHY Saunders was so undervalued -- in my opinion, that is. BaseballHQ had his Base Performance Value at 71 (!) last season, after years in the 20's. Whether you buy in or not, there's no way he should have been valued that low, not in my book anyway.
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PHX Terry follows on,
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Same point applied to Jaso vs Morse + Shoppach.
Very interesting point about acquiring Morales for free. Certainly looks that way to me. A similar point can be raised in the Jaso/Morse/Shoppach deal. If Shoppach is deemed in an overall sense to be the equivalent of Jaso (leaving aside the number of years under contract), did GMZ essentially just acquire Morse for free?
HERE IS THE POINT THAT ESCAPES PEOPLE WHO HAVE NOT PLAYED ROTO. These amazing dumpster dives -- hey, 3/4 of a tuna sandwich, hardly been touched! -- were there.
This really was a classic Roto offseason by Zduriencik. He wanted Hamilton. Didn't get him. He shuffled the 3-card monte around and he made his team better - a lot better. Using absolutely vintage Stars & Scrubs logic.
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The M's, in effect, paid 25c on the dollar for Saunders and Shoppach, if you compare those two players to Vargas and Jaso (who became Morse).
- [Vargas - Saunders delta] vs [Morales] = 25c
- [Jaso - Shoppach delta] vs [Morse] = 25c
But you are not in position to GRAB Shoppach, and Bazooka Joe, if your roster has 25 Civics. You're only in position to GRAB those dumpster sandwiches if you've emptied your roster by trading Civics for Stars. You clear parking slots by trading 3-for-1 and getting the best player back. Then the nice cars come by and you park them.
This is the big reason that we talk past each other, on the value of a Prince Fielder.
The hidden benefits to Stars & Scrubs don't have any columns on Fangraphs. But you, gentlemen, just had a living illustration of it. Here are your #3 and #4 hitters, at the cost of very minimal deltas at C #2 and SP #4, because of Zduriencik's Stars and Scrubs shell game.
BABVA,
Dr D