SSI Hot Seat: M's Semi Runs Over Little Blue Bicycle
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For those just joining us: Hot Seat, the way we'd sound on radio. Off the cuff. Virtual radio, no facts, no figures, light on the data, heavy on the human reaction.
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HOT SEAT: Franklin Gutierrez looks great, and looks great in all the right ways. Tape-measure shots to CF. Whattaya think?
DR D, NO MALICE AFORETHOUGHT, IN FACT NO AFORETHOUGHT aforethought: The 2009 Franklin Gutierrez was credited with 7.0 WAR, which was a giant blemish on WAR's face. Gutierrez was a league-average hitter playing a real good center field.
The idea that this "7.0 WAR" player is worth more than, say, Josh Hamilton, and that Major League Baseball (TM) is certifiably ready for the loony bin -- it pays Hamilton, but doesn't pay Bourn -- that idea is part of what causes the lingering skepticism over sabermetrics.
But! Having gotten that into perspective ... Franklin Gutierrez is fully capable of reprising Mike Cameron. 20 homers, 20 stolen bases, a .280 AVG, and a great center field (100-110) OPS+. That's a minor star -- I won't pay him for 7 WAR, but I durn tootin' will pay him for 4 WAR.
A 20-20 Gutierrez is comparable in value to a middle infielder who is a good defender and a fairly good hitter. Ian Kinsler is comparable in value to Mike Cameron 2000-2005. Brandon Phillips is. Howie Kendrick. If the Mariners added a Kinsler-, Kendrick-level player out of nowhere, we'd take it.
The M's had a Cinderella season in 2001 partly because Mike Cameron came out of nowhere to do huge collateral damage. The M's do in fact have a 95-win scenario in 2013, and it probably involves Franklin Gutierrez hitting 23 homers and winning the Gold Glove.
Once again, Dr. D confesses: he was too skeptical about Gutierrez' hitting talent, the last three years. It's becoming apparent that his disease was a bigger cause than SSI thought that it was.
(Edit to add, post hot seat, that b-ref.com gives the M's player with highest "quality of opposition" this spring as ... Franklin Gutierrez. Guti's faced tougher pitching than anybody. His SLG is about 1200.)
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HOT SEAT: Mo' Dawg takes the board deep! He turned two pitching wedges way down on Rauuul from the start.
Dr. D: They were right and I was wrong. Rauulll was, in retrospect, a shrill move.
Chime in, if you were with Mo' Dawg. Humble pie for Dr. D.
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HOT SEAT: What's with all of the excitement on KJR-AM?
DR D: The people hanging around the clubhouse are buying in to the 8-game winning streak. Big time.
First a jock will qualify it, of course, with sixteen different ways of saying "it's only spring training" so that the jock in the chair next to him won't make fun of him ... and then, deflector shields in place, he'll go on to talk about why he's excited about the 2013 Mariners. Based on the 8-game winning streak.
What you, Gentle Reader, are seeing is NOT that jocks fail to "get it" on 8-game sample sizes. It's not so easily dismissed.
What you are seeing IS that there is (inferentially) a vibe in the clubhouse, all of the athletes in there saying "I got this. We're going to be good this year."
Mike Morse knows what MLB pitching looks like. Kendrys Morales knows what he'll be dealing with in April. You know who else is fully aware of the task ahead? Franklin Gutierrez.
These guys know what the last 2,000 feet look like on Mt. Rainier. And they are walking around vib'ing that they've got the self-arrest techniques to make the climb.
You know who else knows what the last 2,000 feet look like on Rainier? Dustin Ackley does. Kyle Seager does. Michael Saunders does.
These particular ballplayers now know what they are up against, and these particular ballplayers are walking around relaxed and smiling, and going out into games against Chris Capuano, Matt Cain and Co. and bashing their blinking heads in.
I don't say that April can't arrive, and that a slump can't start. But it says here that Spring Training is registering seismo's. This only makes sense. Zduriencik has been stockpiling real talent, and it was going to jell SOME time.
Looks like it's probably now.
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