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Hey Doc, thanks for bringing his BB's up. I have a thread posted that should soon pop up on that issue. Smoak is walking WAY more than his historical average and his power is WAY down. He's on pace for 8 homers in 600 PA's. Those two numbers are unlikley to continue to dance together in that manner, unless he's a Davey Mags-type, as you stated. But to get there you have to believe that THIS Smoak is the real, for the rest of his career, Smoak.....and this isn't just a hot streak. I'm not sure. Mag's was a .323-.448 MiLB guy. Smoak is .279-.400. Mags is .309-.409 at AAA. Smoak, .252-.381. Maybe Smoak has finally found his game? I'm hoping so......sure would be nice if he could play 60% of the time at 3B, like Magadan did.
Casey is a tougher comparison. He twice whacked 70 x-base hits in a season. He did it early enough (at age 24) to establish that potential and a certain fear in pitchers. Smoak has topped out at 39. Even in his 18 game hot streak (essentially platooned, too), his rate doesn't meet Casey's.
If Smoak is a .290-.390-.390 (his .292-.412-.417 from the left side this year is fueled by a .382 BABIP) he holds down the job until you get a slugger to replace him at 1B. But were he a Magadan or Youkilis, then you could move his around from 3B to 1B to meet your need....and he would have increased trade value.
But, as you said, if he doesn't strat denting some walls, he's not going to get this many walks. If his walks go, his value (sans power) goes, too.
If he explodes all is great. If he implodes again, we know his true value. If he remains where is currently is, he's a piece to be used. SF won a WS last year with a guy quasi-similar. But Belt was a .291-.436-.535 guy at AAA and even better at AA. At A+, he was .387-.499-.624! His pedigree might be a bit better, don't you think?