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While Iwakuma's HR rate still nags at me, I am definitely coming around to the concept that he's tapping into some situational "magic" that limits his HR damage.
Statistically, he doesn't match up with Maddux very well, (Mad Dog couldn't break 8 Ks even in his insane 1995 19-1 1.63 campaign). He rarely broke 7 Ks. Both obviously have the insane control that keeps walk totals ridiculously small, but Maddux truly out-of-bounds skill was always in his HR totals. He never allowed 20 HRs in a season, until he was 35 years old. He had an 11 year run where his worst HR/9 was 0.6. He had 4 seasons with more than 200 IPs and single-digit HR totals.
But, the point I would most like to make on Maddux is not really related to Iawkuma. It's related to the bevy of pitching prospects the Ms have.
Maddux was (IMHO), the greatest RH pitcher of the past 50 years. (I know - there are some others that make the claim, but Maddux is certainly in the discussion).
But ... as a rookie and sophomore:
1986 -- 31-IP; 5.52 ERA (2-4) -- 12.8 / 0.9 / 3.2 / 5.8
1987 -- 155.2-IP; 5.61 ERA (6-14) -- 10.5 / 1.0 / 4.3 / 5.8
Okay, he was only 20 and 21 years of age those first two trips. But, the point here is that it is NOT a requirement to become a Hall of Fame pitcher to have immediate dominance on the mound. Guys like Felix and Pineda are not the norm. And plenty of rookie stars crash and burn never to return, (mostly due to injury, but not always.
This is not to say ANY of the current Ms prospects are going to go on to have Maddux-like careers. But, I think it is important to put a little context around recent performances ... because I think many fans dismiss players too quickly in terms of upward potential if they happen to struggle early. Compare these first two seasons to the ones from Maddux above.
2011 -- 56-IP; 4.47 ERA (2-2) -- 10.1 / 1.0 / 3.5 / 7.2
2012 -- 106.2-IP; 5.82 ERA (2-12) -- 9.0 / 1.8 / 3.3 / 5.7
Those or the results for Hector Noesi.
Maddux would go on to win 18 in his 2nd full season with a 3.18 ERA and the rest is history.
Glavine's first two years?
1987 - 50.1-IP; 5.54; 2-4 -- 9.8 / 0.9 / 5.9 / 3.6
1988 - 195-IP; 4.56; 7-17 -- 9.3 / 0.6 / 2.9 / 3.9
Glavine didn't crack FOUR (4) Ks per nine until his 3rd season.
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The intent here is to try and suggest that "reasonable expectations" for prospects (hitting or pitching) should include a HIGH likelihood that the results are going to be far bumpier than one would hope.
Today, as we speak, the Braves are 7 games up in the NL East.
Jason Heyward, THEIR version of Ackley ... .153/.288/.270 - .558
B.J. Upton ... a key FA signing ... .153 / .237 / .265 - .502
The Braves are winning behind a monster pitching staff with a 119 ERA+.
Tim Hudson is the worst (4-4; 4.80 ERA)
Then you have:
Paul Maholm - 7-4; 3.68 -- 31 year old journeyman pick-up with a 4.23 career ERA
Mike Minor - 7-2; 2.48 -- 4th season -- previous ERAs were 5.98; 4.14; 4.12
Kris Medlen - 2-6; 3.14 -- 5th season - 4.26 and 3.68 - (hurt) - then broke through with a 10-1; 1.57 season over 138 IP last year
Julio Teheran - 3-2; 3.71 -- 5.03 ERA in 19.2-IP in 2011; and 5.68 in 6.1 IP in 2012