Since Smoak returned from his Tacoma demotion of last summer, he has put up the following numbers in 399 PA: .270/.369/.432/.801. The trajectory looks like it's going up, so I think it's quite possible we have an .850 OPSing first baseman who brings a good glove to help out the kiddie corps we have in the infield.
I don't buy the Kotchman comparison because Smoak has more power. Casey's best home run high season was 14, Smoak hit 19 last season with old Safeco as his home field. We also know from first hand experience what Casey Kotchman can do in Safeco field when he is in the prime year (27) of his career: post a .616 OPS with 9 home runs. But Justin, for as bad as he's been, has never come close to that in ineptness.
Nick Johnson hit 23 in his one real good season in old RFK in 2006. I'll bet Smoak was robbed of at least 5 home runs by Safeco last year. I think Smoak will fit in somewhere between the two - more power than Casey and Nick, lower OBP than Nick. But if Smoak has an age 27 season like Casey did...man, I will probably want to shoot myself.
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