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IMHO, I just don't see Smoak developing into a MOO masher.
He's Nick Johnson
He's always been Nick Johnson
IMO, he will always be Nick Johnson.
I think his actual development has been significantly hampered by this (to me), unending attempt to turn him into Teixeira.
He is finally starting to actually leverage his primary batting gift - his eye - and the instant this happens, suddenly the dreams on 30-HR; 100-RBI resurface.
Understand - if he had been hitting doubles like Seager did in the minors, I'd have some optimism. But he didn't. He has *NEVER* demonstrated the "consistency" necessary to put up MOO numbers. What he has done repeatedly is shown the "when he's in the zone", he can do a nice Mark Teixeira impression for a couple of weeks. But, he's 26 and has never remained "in the zone" for more than about 6 weeks consecutively.
Oh, give him 3 years experience being Nick Johnson WITHOUT expectation of driving in a hundred runs, yeah, he might manage a single career year with MOO numbers. But, he's not 21 ... or even 23. He's already 26.
Maybe it is the switch hitting thing. Maybe being a switch hitter is what prevents the consistency to amass the countables that the eyes-on reviews keep saying "are coming any day".
But, numerically, true MOO hitters, they drive in 25-30 runs in a month when they get hot, which helps offset the 10-12 when they aren't. Smoak drives in 17-18 *when he's on fire*.
In order for Smoak to become a real MOO hitter ... he would have to *NEVER* have a bad month.
Don't get me wrong. I think Nick Johnson is a valuable commodity to have. Yeah, it would be better if your .400 OBP guy could steal 20 for you. But, I'll take the .400 OBP and be very, very happy hitting Smoak #2 in the lineup, letting somebody else steal bases in front of him and letting somebody else drive him in.
You get a savvy manager, maybe you can get Smoak to buy into getting shifted down to bat 4/5 when he's dialed in, (but NOT changing his approach). But, IMO, a guy with .400 OBP that is walk-driven with sporadic power is perfect for the #2 slot.