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Last year Lonnie was pimping Lopes to me as a potential Adopt-a-player bat. (I ended up going with Dario Pizzano).
When I looked at Lopes and his .860 OPS in Arizona and his age of 18, I was intrigued. But, I realized that his 2012 numbers were SUPER-pumped by 12 triples. Normally that would be ringing my dinner bell statistically ... speed doesn't slump. But, then I realized Lopes bats righty.
My take on Lopes LAST YEAR was that to amass that many triples, he HAD to be peppering the RF line on a regular basis. While his rookie league eye was solid enough (24:29 in 53 games), I opted to pass on him based on the suspicion that his triple-laden .860 was a potential indicator that he was ALREADY nearing the top edge of his ability to match the competition. My prediction THEN was that as he went up in level(s) that he would run into a brick wall LONG before he made it the Majors. His first taste of Clinton has largely been exactly what I feared would happen.
That said ... he's only 19. It is certainly *possible* that he can learn, grow and improve and eventually prove me wrong. But, if my guess about his rookie league swing was right, (that the bulk of his XBH numbers were opposite field, then I still believe that suggests his upside is extremely limited. While his K-rate has reamined fairly steady, I've got to wonder if the crash dive to his walk rate is also related to simply not being able to ramp his game up to superior competition. (Not wild about the 18 errors in 104 games at 2B either).
Mind you, my two Clinton AAPs (Pizzano and Jabari Henry) are behind the age curve (both 22) for reaching the Majors. But, they're both hitting over .800 with 1:1 eye ratios, so I expect they'll be moving up next year, while I suspect Lopes fails to graduate A ball this year.