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lr's picture

What I am arguing, which I clearly stated in my post, is this. His career average is 120. His last 3 years, generally accepted by everyone as the best indication of future performance, have been 128 over 200 PA's (the year he broke his ankle) 118 last year over 522 PA's, and 117 this year over 530 P's. So over his last 1,000 PA's, he has a 118 wRC+. And he just turned 30. If you think he is done "battling injury" now that he has turned 30, well....
The career year where he posted a 136, his BABIP was 20 points higher than his now career average, and his ISO was 60 points higher than his now career average. If you want to argue that the injury robbed him of production, you probably won't get many arguments. But the Mariners shouldn't be evaluating Kendrys Morales on what his career might have been if he had never gotten injured. They should valuate him based on his performance on the field combined with their future projections. If you wish to perpetuate the notion that he still isn't fully healed from his injury from 3 years ago and he is likely to return to his 2009 levels, then by all means go ahead. But I just don't agree. I think what he has produced over the last 1,000 PA's is a pretty good indication of what he is likely to be. A 115-120 guy, that literally does everything else really bad.
The difference between USSM's article and yours was a fully laid out case. His reasoning for keeping Morales was because Jeff pointed out that his gains as a RHB might be real, combined with the fact that he was at a 140 wRC+ at the time of the article over 200 PA's with a .335 BABIP. Dave said at the time that 140 probably wasn't real, but that at 125-130 he would endorse making the qualifying offer. Dave made mention that he was a bad base-runner, and that he was almost solely a DH. He fully acknowledged that his performance is tied completely to his offense. Since then, June 4, over 290 PA's, not the 30 days or 2-3 weeks or whatever number you keep pulling out of somewhere, he has been a 106 hitter. All combined he's at 117 for the year over 530 PA's. The reason I'm not busting his chops is because he laid out the case fully for using the QO, he explained why he thought his hitting might stabilize around the 130 mark, he acknowledged his lack of ability to provide any value anywhere else. Since then, Morales has reverted back to what he has been over the last 2 years, and Dave changed his stance. All of that seems perfectly reasonable.
You are straw manning this argument to death. When you say things like "Now it turns out that he can't hit .380 forever, and people are like "whooooa, check that, he's regressed." or "Kendrys isn't a mediocre hitter. Get that straight." or "Look at the trends across SEASONS, not across weeks.", you're making it sound like people are saying that he isn't a good hitter, or that people are making judgement over a months worth of plate appearances. Everyone that knows anything about baseball would say that he is a good hitter. Great hitter? Nope. I think you think he's a better hitter than he has been the last 2 years, but I think you're wrong. I think he's just as likely to have a down year next year as he is to have an up year based on his year to year performance and his age.

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