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Here (and over at MC), I get the sense of a gradual divergence. Some people are starting to "get" what prospect development is like. Others seem to be stuck on this page where they assume prospect development is nice and linear. So, here's an example of 4 players - (none of them Mariners)
Player 1: (what everyone wants/expects with prospects)
.795
.796
.868
Player 2: (typical sophomore slump profile)
.849
.708
.814
.771
Player 3: (fairly typical "rushed" uber-prospect - who NEVER regained his initial breakout level)
.733 (45 games)
.593 (50 games)
.894
.784
.686
.745
Player 4: (notice how linear turned into schizophrenic?)
.816
.899
.799
.898
.785
Player 1 is Freddie Freeman, who started well and improved two years later.
Player 2 is Jason Heyward - who was a MUCH higher rated prospect than Freeman, but regressed horribly in year 2.
Player 3 is BJ Upton, who has been extremely pedestrian since his .894 age 22 season.
Player 4 is Justin Upton, who seems to swing 100 points of OPS every year.
Understand - these are all "ELITE" prospects - guys that BA had in their top 10 overall rankings. They are all success stories, but outside of Freeman, the ride hasn't been particularly smooth for any of them. This isn't about Seattle "mis-handling" of prospects. This is about how INDIVIDUAL prospects progress in volatile, completely unpredictable ways. But, the fact a kid comes up and hits .800 his first year and .700 his next is *NOT* by itself evidence that he was mishandled in any way. Player development is messy and volatile and unpredictable.
The SAME team that watched Heyward lose 150 points of OPS in his 2nd season watched Freeman exactly repeat his debut numbers, then add 70 points in year 3.
Nobody on the planet knows what Franklin and Miller and Ackley and Smoak and Seager and Zunino are going to produce next year. Just like nobody knows the specific year that a player will see age decline have a major impact on his production.
"As a group", kids under 27 will tend to improve. But, not all of them will. "As a group", 32 year olds will tend to get worse. But, again, not all of them will.
Mind you, when you have not produced a decent bat from your farm in over a decade, the evidence is strong that you have a problem. But, today, the Mariners are actually seeing "normal" prospect development -- with the offensive player production totals suppressed somewhat due to the park. But, at least for the first time this millenium, the club has a chance to actually get "normal" - chaotic, frustrating and delighting unpredictable prospect results. It's a WHALE of a lot better than dealing with the complete certainty that your prospects are going to tank.