James Paxton, SEA and Matt Moore, TBR
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Paxton's changeup was his second-best pitch against the Cardinals, actually a very intriguing weapon. He throws it "dead fish," like Jamie Moyer, and it has a natural shape to hit the low-away corner.
Dr. D has scoffed at the idea of Paxton throwing a changeup. Also, in Paxton's first two games, his curve has been quite disappointing. Not for potential, but in terms of actual game impact.
But Paxton's change is already a weapon that ML hitters have to account for. That's important! And it means that James Paxton becomes a natural comp to Matt Moore of the Rays, whose changeup is also a work in progress, but which is about equal in impact to his curve:
| Pitch Selection | FB% | FB velo | Curve % | Change % |
| Matt Moore | 65 | 93.0 | 17 | 17 |
| James Paxton | 68 | 95.1 | 18 | 13 |
Honestly, these two pitchers are throwing the ball in very similar ways. Paxton has had more yips with his release point in the minors, but that's not an overwhelming point of difference. For reasons we offered, last post.
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In case you hadn't noticed, Matt Moore also has less-than-stellar control. It is not a fatal flaw, any more than it was for other 4-5BB lefties who came up to the bigs, like Gio Gonzalez and Clayton Kershaw. Here is some K/BB data:
| W-L | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | Grounder % | |
| Moore, 2012 | 11-11 | 3.81 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 37 |
| Moore, 2013 | 15-3 (!) | 3.11 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 39 |
| Paxton, 2013 | 2-0, heh | 0.75 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 57 |
After 2011, the Rays gave Matt Moore a contract through 2019 (!):
- AFTER 9.1 innings in the big leagues, and
- BEFORE Moore had his control issues solved
Lefties like Moore and Paxton, those guys are a job for the scouts. Not the sabermetricians.
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The one thing that I've liked the best about the "hidden game of baseball," for Paxton, is the delightful way in which he took advantage of Zunino's and Willis' in-game coaching. This despite his facing the Rays, Cardinals, and having every excuse to panic.
If you and I noticed the way that James Paxton responded to Carl Willis, do you think the Mariners did?