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Who Is Curtis Granderson?  How do you sift through these piles of variables and pick out the right ones?

 

I mean, everybody loves him, right?  Not Ron Shandler.  Before 2013 -- that is, when Granderson was a hot property -- Shandler issued a red flag on Granderson.

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"Another 40 homers, but he's at a crossroads now.  Consistent contact% erosion has put him in hacker territory.  

2011 BABIP looks like an outlier, and even a .250 AVG won't come easy.  

Power is elite, but friendly park padded his HR totals.  

Stolen bases are more a product of green light than skill.  Don't overpay."

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In this specific case, I think that Shandler has put his finger on the two key things here:  1) Granderson has elite power (175-198 PX!!) and (2) he has morphed into a hitter who spends his season stalking home runs, at major detriment to his batting average and OBP.

The Power Index (PX) for Granderson is absurdly high and should not be minimized.   When you are talking 180, 190 PX, that is higher than any major league player other than Giancarlo Stanton (at 220).  Granderson's PX has been higher than Josh Hamilton, higher than Adam Dunn, higher than anybody other than Stanton.

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Home Park Effect

The average MLB home run travels 393 feet.  Granderson's, the last three years, have traveled 402, 383, and 389 feet ... that's not fly ball distance; that's the 100 or so actual home runs he's hit.  Those 390 feet came on LOTS AND LOTS of fly balls.

Here are his last three seasons' worth of home runs, with Safeco overlaid, courtesy of ESPN's home run tracker.  The 2013 season:

The 2012 season:

The 2011 season:

Don't get caught up in the Safeco overlay.  The point is that Granderson:

• Pulls his HR's
• Is an EXTREME fly ball hitter

The fact is, Granderson has learned how to get his pitch, plant the back leg, and lift the ball to right field.  He is very good at that ... better, pound-for-pound, than any other major league player.   

An extreme Kyle Seager.

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Batspeed

The reason we didn't like Swisher as an age 32-38 player -- and he did, in fact, fall off in his age-32 season -- was that we saw a slow bat launch on video.

If you actually watch Curtis Granderson, his bat still looks very quick.  Sure, if it's lefty-on-lefty, he uses a slow KBIZLT push like this one.  That's part of why he can hit LHP's now.  He doesn't commit out in front.

Most of the time, he waits on the pitch, sees it, and then UNSNAPS a fast bat like this one.

And as you can see, he's got Seager's ability to keep the bat on a level pitch-plane, while also getting under the ball.

No concerns on this front.  And, of course, Granderson doesn't have Nick Swisher's "old player skills" body -- Granderson is a low body-fat player with fast-twitch muscles, good footspeed, etc.

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Granderson's plate discipline is going south, but it says here that is because he's getting enamored with HR's pulled into the RF seats.  That's a lot different than a guy who is having to cheat to catch up to the pitch.

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Center Field

As SSI pointed out, the Mariner outfielders were pathetic in 2013 for two reasons:

• Saunders, Bonderman, Maurer, and Harang were giving up tee shots
• The outfielders were playing too far in

Meanwhile, Felix and Iwakuma were doing very well on batted balls in play.

Gimme Taijuan and K-Pax in the 3-4 slots, and let Granderson play deep, and sure.  Granderson will be a legit CF for a few more years.

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Dr's Prognosis

I'd be reasonably confident in projecting Granderson for .240/.320/.500-ish, with 30-40 homers, the next few years.  The things that would make him exciting:

• Those are HARD skills, done in Yankee Stadium, over 700-AB seasons
• Center field
• He can run, too (100 runs scored per season)

So although I'd rather have a Straw That Stirs -- Giancarlo Stanton, or even Shin-Soo Choo's .400 OBP in the three slot -- Curtis Granderson would also be an impact add in SSI's book.

A 115 OPS+ center fielder would NOT turn the [2014 Mariners Playoff Odds] evaluation on its ear.  But Pair him with another add ... say, Granderson AND Choo or Cliff Lee or somesuch ... along with Taijuan and K-Pax, and you're really got something.

BABVA,

Dr D